Will the Fed raise rates for a second straight meeting, or will it push pause on a potential increase?
NOTE: This is a live blog that will be updated frequently. Refresh often for the latest updates.
More predictions: A hold is expected
1:50 p.m. ET
Most mortgage professionals are expecting the Fed to hold rates steady today. That includes Jay Lessard, president of Sonoran Lending, but he told our Fergal McAlinden that he’ll be listening closely to Warsh’s comments.
“I’m expecting the Fed to hold rates steady today,” Lessard told Mortgage Professional America. “For me, the bigger story isn’t necessarily the decision itself, but the language that comes with it and what the Fed signals about December and the path forward.”
Lessard noted that the Fed is now having to deal with trouble on both sides of its mandate.
“Inflation is still running hotter than the Fed would like, so I don't think they're in a position to declare victory,” he said. “At the same time, there are signs of slower hiring and some moderation in parts of the economy. That gives the Fed a reason to be patient rather than continuing to raise rates at every meeting.”
The last time the Fed held rates, the bond markets weren’t crazy about it. Lessard will be keeping a close eye on the market.
“From a mortgage perspective, I'll be paying particularly close attention to how the bond market reacts to the Fed's message,” he said. “Mortgage rates don't move directly with the Fed funds rate, and sometimes the market's reaction to what the Fed says about the future is more important than the actual rate decision. The next day or two will likely be a bumpy ride.”
Jessica Eddy, loan officer at Edge Home Finance, also expects a hold today, but told McAlinden that she is concerned that Warsh’s comments may set off the bond market.
“I’m thinking they will hold,” Eddy told Mortgage Professional America. “The one to look for is the December meeting. Traders are putting a 75% chance on a quarter-point hike then. That being said, the main thing today will be Kevin Warsh's comments after the decision. That could bring volatility to the market.
“It’s worth remembering the Fed's fund rate isn’t the mortgage rate, so today’s decision alone won’t move mortgage rates. In addition, we are watching the 10-year Treasury more closely than the Fed announcement because that is also what mortgage rates follow.”
Coming up, the Fed’s decision at the top of the hour.
North of the border: A 25-basis-point hike
1:40 p.m. ET
The Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate target by 25 basis points to 2.5% on Wednesday, its first increase since July 2023. The Bank Rate moves to 2.75% and the deposit rate to 2.45%.
Governor Tiff Macklem pointed to energy prices, with the war in the Middle East now in its eighth month and no clear path to resolution. The inflation outlook has worsened since the Bank's July report.
"First, the outlook for inflation has deteriorated," Macklem said at the Bank's press conference. "With the war in the Middle East persisting, global oil prices have increased and are expected to remain higher for longer. This is hitting Canadians at the gas pump and increasing costs for many businesses."
Inflation has hovered around 3% since April, and the Bank expects it to climb to roughly 3.5% by the end of the year. Strip out gasoline, and it was 2.2% in September.
The economy has held up better than expected, with GDP up 3.3% in the second quarter, though the Bank expects housing to remain relatively weak. That left Governing Council weighing a hold, backed by core inflation near 2%, slack in the economy, and new US tariffs, against an increase, backed by energy costs working their way into other prices.
"With the outlook for inflation substantially higher and the economy showing resilience, an increase in the policy rate is needed to reduce the risk that elevated energy prices could spill over and become generalized inflation," Macklem said.
The Bank left the door open to more potential hikes. Its next decision is Dec. 9.
"Looking ahead, Governing Council agreed we would take future decisions one meeting at a time," Macklem said. "There could be a need to raise the policy rate further, but given the uncertainties, we will proceed carefully."
The Federal Reserve announces its own decision at 2 p.m. Eastern today. It raised rates for the first time since 2023 about six weeks ago.
Lender reaction: Dual mandate focus hurts Fed, market
1:30 p.m. ET
Fairview Commercial Lending COO and partner Glen Weinberg is never short of a strong opinion about mortgage topics. He’s been in the industry for more than 30 years, so he brings a lot of experience behind those opinions.
He believes the Fed focusing on both employment and inflation is a hindrance, rather than a positive for the market.
"This dual mandate was the worst thing the Federal Reserve could do," Weinberg told Mortgage Professional America.
Congress amended the Federal Reserve Act in 1977 to direct the Fed to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. However, critics have been skeptical of jobs data, and that’s just one of the reasons Weinberg argues the Fed should act on inflation alone.
"All they need to do is focus on their one thing, inflation, because as soon as they start focusing on employment, they aren't taking the right steps for inflation," he said.
He agreed with the premise that if the weaker jobs report hadn’t come out a few weeks ago, the central bank would likely be looking at another rate hike today.
"So, the Fed is going to create this problem in this cycle because they're worried about employment," he said. "Employment should have nothing to do with their decisions. It should be inflation and the long-term stability of the economy. But as soon as you get out of your box, nothing happens. That's why we're stuck.
He believes that the criticisms of the jobs data, which is often revised after the fact, just add to the argument that the Fed should be hyper-focused on inflation.
"It's based on a survey. It's like, okay, if anybody calls me, hey, I want to do a survey, do you answer the phone? Absolutely not," he said. "I'm not answering the phone. Why? Random number asking me for a survey? I mean, they don't even get through my Google phone. It's like, so their information is garbage as well."
While we’re waiting to see what happens, here’s a chart of the Fed funds rate since 2010. This reflects the actual overnight funds rate rather than the range that the central bank operates within.
Comparing US rates to the rest of the world
1:20 p.m. ET
Here is a chart and an interactive map showing how the US Federal Funds rate compares to central bank rates around the world:
| Country | Central Bank Rate |
|---|---|
| Switzerland | 0.00% |
| Singapore | 1.05% |
| Japan | 1.25% |
| Canada | 2.50% |
| Eurozone | 2.65% |
| China | 3.00% |
| South Korea | 3.00% |
| United States | 3.75% – 4.00% |
| United Kingdom | 3.75% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.50% |
| Australia | 4.60% |
| India | 5.50% |
| Indonesia | 5.75% |
| Mexico | 6.50% |
| South Africa | 7.25% |
| Brazil | 13.75% |
| Russia | 14.00% |
| Argentina | 29.00% |
| Türkiye | 36.00% |
Fed Preview: Conflicting mandates likely bring a hold
1:00 p.m. ET
Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, believes the central bank will pause this afternoon rather than hike rates for a second straight meeting, with both sides of its dual mandate struggling.
"Election day may command the headlines, but the economic data will ultimately drive the Fed's next move," Williamson told Mortgage Professional America. "And in September, the data painted a mixed picture, with inflation coming in hotter than expected and job growth surprising to the downside. While an October rate hike remains a possibility, the Fed may prefer to proceed cautiously and wait until December."
As is often the case when the Fed holds, the post-decision press conference may be more interesting than the decision itself. Will Fed chair Kevin Warsh tip his hand about what’s to come in December, or will he continue to resist giving forward guidance?
Williamson said there could be dissent not just in how to tackle the current market, but how boldly to move.
"The Fed remains united on the goal of bringing inflation down, but not necessarily on how quickly to get there," he said. "As policymakers weigh persistent inflation against the risk of overtightening, differences over the timing and pace of further hikes could lead to more dissent in the months ahead."
Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the bond market in the post-meeting, which has been on a rollercoaster ride over the last few months. Williamson said that more volatility could be ahead.
"Treasury yields may have retreated from their recent highs, but the forces pushing them higher have not," Williamson said. "Stubborn inflation, resilient growth, and expectations for further Fed tightening will likely keep interest rates elevated through year-end. While oil prices and investor sentiment around AI stocks could create some bumps along the way, the broader trend heading into 2027 still points to a higher-for-longer interest-rate environment."
Welcome to the live blog!
12:45 p.m. ET
Welcome to our seventh live blog of 2026 at Mortgage Professional America. Today, we are covering the Federal Reserve’s October rate announcement.
The betting markets believe more rate hikes are in the future for the Fed, but not today. There is a strong expectation of a rate hold at today’s announcement. The last time the Fed held, the bond market spiked, so we’ll see what the markets think of the Fed’s announcement this afternoon.
Then, all eyes will turn to the midterm elections next Tuesday and the final Fed meeting in December.
We'll be previewing the decision here until 2 pm ET, when we'll have the official word from the Fed. Then we'll bring you industry reaction and Fed chair Kevin Warsh's thoughts afterwards.
Refresh often for the latest from our live blog!
