High-end buyers face softer prices and slower activity across most of the US
The United States luxury housing market lost momentum in early 2026, with sales slipping and price growth easing to its slowest pace in five years, even as San Francisco’s top tier of properties continued to surge.
Across the country, luxury home sales fell 2.4% year over year in March, while non‑luxury sales edged down 0.2%, according to a Redfin analysis of Multiple Listing Service data covering the three months to March 2026.
The median luxury sale price reached $1,395,456, up 3.6% from a year earlier. That's the weakest annual increase since 2021 and only modestly ahead of the 1% rise in non‑luxury prices.
Redfin defines luxury homes as those in the top 5% of local prices.
Luxury market cools as rates stay high
Many affluent borrowers still faced financing and confidence hurdles at the end of the first quarter.
“Many would-be homebuyers, whether they’re high-end buyers or not, are sitting on the sidelines due to 6%-plus mortgage rates and widespread economic uncertainty, including the back-and-forth on the Iran war,” the report said.
Redfin’s national snapshot showed inventory inching higher: active luxury listings rose 1.5% year over year, roughly half the 3.1% increase for non‑luxury homes, while luxury new listings dipped 1.3%.
San Francisco stands apart in the AI boom
Despite that, San Francisco’s luxury housing market is booming. The number of luxury homes sold in the city “jumped 22.2% year over year in March, the fifth straight month of double-digit increases and the third-biggest increase among the 50 most populous U.S. metros.”
Soaring demand pushed the median luxury sale price to $6,808,561, up 9% year over year and the highest March level on record, with typical high‑end properties going under contract in 12 days.
Local Redfin Premier agent Ali Mafi said the city’s AI windfall and a shift in sentiment both mattered.
“There was this hysteria a few years ago that people were leaving San Francisco in droves and the housing market was going to crash. That wasn’t true then and it’s the opposite of true now,” Mafi said.
“They’re bringing so much money into the housing market— especially the luxury market. The recent dip in mortgage rates has attracted even more buyers, and some luxury properties are now getting dozens of offers.”
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