Analyst says the refinance window is open for more borrowers than most realize
Recent rate increases have likely put a potential refinance boom on hold for now. After rates fell below 6% earlier this year, they have now risen back above 6.5%.
However, that doesn’t mean that a surge in refinances is off the table for 2026, especially with your former customers who bought a home in the last few years.
A new LendingTree study shows just how many borrowers who bought homes in 2023, 2024, or 2025 could still save real money if they refinanced today. For brokers, that is a call list waiting to be worked. The people who bought during the high-rate years are not as far from a beneficial refinance as they may think, and many do not know it.
At the 6.37% rate observed in early April, 32.5% of borrowers who took out 30-year fixed mortgages between 2023 and 2025 could benefit from refinancing, with average annual savings of $2,320. If rates fall back to 6%, that figure jumps to 56.6% of recent homebuyers, nearly 24 percentage points higher.
Matt Schulz (pictured top), chief consumer finance analyst at LendingTree, said the numbers tell a different story than what some borrowers and brokers might think.
"An awful lot of Americans who bought homes in the last few years may finally have an actual opportunity to reduce their monthly costs," Schulz told Mortgage Professional America. "And even though the savings may not be as much as they might have been a few months ago, they can still be significant."
6% is the number to watch
Freddie Mac's latest weekly survey put the 30-year fixed rate at 6.51%, a nine-month high driven by Iran-related inflation fears in bond markets. That is where rates sit right now, and it is a reminder of how fast the environment can shift.
When rates briefly crossed below 6% earlier this year, it generated real urgency among borrowers, even though the dollar difference between 6.02% and 5.99% is minimal. Schulz said that the reaction is predictable.
"Americans tend to like big round numbers, so I do think there was some power in falling below 6%," Schulz said. "Those round numbers kind of feel like milestones or thresholds to people, even if the dollar savings don't really change much. Just being below that 6% number feels significant to a lot of people and would draw a lot of people into refinancing."
That window came and went fast, and a lot of borrowers missed it. For brokers, the LendingTree data shows where to start looking.
Among borrowers who purchased in 2023, 37.7% have rates high enough to benefit from refinancing at 6.37%, with average monthly savings of $223. That compares to 34.7% of 2024 borrowers and 25.1% of 2025 borrowers. Clients who have not yet had the refinance conversation are worth a call now, or at a minimum, a strike rate conversation, so they are ready when the next window opens.
Geography matters too. In New Hampshire, Illinois, and Indiana, more than 42% of recent borrowers could benefit at the 6.37% rate. In California and Hawaii, average monthly savings exceed $300 for qualifying borrowers, given the higher loan balances in those markets.
Helping customers crunch the numbers
Schulz said the savings potential is real, but only if the closing costs pencil out. A refinance typically costs 2% to 6% of the loan amount, or about $8,000 to $24,000 on a $400,000 mortgage. Those upfront costs need to be recovered through monthly savings before the transaction actually benefits the borrower. Clients who just heard a good rate on the radio may not have done that math yet.
A half-point drop is generally enough to make the numbers work within a reasonable timeframe.
"Mortgages are so big that it really doesn't take as much of a rate reduction as people think to move the needle," Schulz said. "There's a whole lot of families out there that would be really happy to have an extra $200 a month in their budget. And for an awful lot of people who bought in the last three or four years, that possibility could be out there."
Running that math upfront also helps brokers spot the deals that look good on paper but fall apart once fees are included. That is the pattern in the serial refinancing schemes that have been circulating, where borrowers get moved for small rate gains that never actually put money back in their pockets.
Schulz said the questions borrowers should be asking are ones any broker should be happy to answer.
"It's really, really important to make sure that you crunch the numbers before you refinance so you can have an understanding of how long it'll take to break even and actually start saving in the long run," Schulz said. "You have to be willing to ask what you may feel are dumb questions and understand the process and the fees. And if the person on the other end of the phone gives you a hard time for asking or is opaque in their answers, that can also be a red flag."
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This article is part of our Monthly Spotlight series, which in May focuses on refinance products. Full coverage can be found here.
