The American Institute of Architects (AIA) is projecting a 5.7% decline in non-residential construction this year, based off slowing demand at architecture firms through 2020.
The forecast expects steep declines in spending on new hotel, office, and entertainment construction. Health care and public safety buildings are the only areas predicted to gain this year.
Hotel construction spending is predicted to decline by a whopping 20.2%, amusement and recreation by 12.6%, and office construction by 9.3%.
“The December jobs report confirmed that the economy needs additional support in order to move to a sustainable economic expansion,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker. “As pandemic concerns begin to wane and economic activity begins to pick up later in 2021, there is likely to be considerable pent-up demand for non-residential space, leading to anticipated growth in construction spending in 2022.”
As of now, the AIA is predicting a growth rate of 3.1% in total non-residential construction spending, led by an 11.1% growth rate in amusement and recreation and an 8.8% growth rate in hotel construction spending.