Niemiec doesn't see a bigger refi market next year, but expects housing to stay a policy focus
Refinance volume has come in well below what was projected for this year, and next year may not bring much relief.
Despite rates sliding back from the mid-7s in recent days, most forecasts show a higher-for-longer environment continuing into 2027. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is forecasting rates in the 7s through all of next year.
Because rates are higher than most experts forecast coming into 2026, any kind of refi wave was limited to a short window early in the year when rates fell into the 5s.
However, that doesn't mean all refinances have stopped. Because they are fewer and farther between, winning those refinances becomes critical for brokers.
Austin Niemiec (pictured top), chief revenue officer at Rocket Pro, said he expects the limited number of refinances to continue through 2027.
"I don't think we're going to see a bigger refi market than we saw this year," Niemiec told Mortgage Professional America.
Beyond rate-and-term refis
The shortfall against this year's overall loan production projections comes from refinance, Niemiec said, because rates have compressed volumes. That does not make refi any less of a priority.
"In fact, converting the opportunities you have and winning with the situations that are right in front of you, in my opinion, become even more important as we head into 2027 than they were in the past," Niemiec said.
Rivals are everywhere, he said, and pricing pressure is building. The borrowers worth fighting for are the ones ready to decide.
"There's a ton of competition," Niemiec said. "You're seeing some margin compression across the broker community. And when brokers have the opportunity, someone ready, someone wanting to make a decision, someone with a competing quote in their hand, they've got to do everything they can to beat it in a tough market like this."
Confidence about next year, he said, depends on where a broker has put the business. It turns on whether brokers still expect rate-and-term refis to carry them.
"There's optimism for the folks who have come to the conclusion a while ago that rates being in the 3s and 4s and having rate and term refis be something you could build an entire business on is no longer a thing," Niemiec said. "And those that realize that and have built their business around purchase, around cash out, around really leaning into home equity, are very optimistic for the year of 2027.
“And I think those that are still kind of holding on hope that rates and terms are going to come to save them are probably less optimistic."
Policy focus and a new tool
Housing will stay a policy focus after today’s midterm elections, he said. Affordability is the biggest issue in the economy, and housing is the largest piece of it.
"You're seeing some energy come out from the Hill to attack," Niemiec said. "You're seeing things with credit, you're seeing things with LLPAs. And so there is some momentum there."
Niemiec said Rocket Pro wants to help accelerate that momentum. He pointed to base price being best price and an incentive for consumers to work with a broker and a Compass agent.
Rocket Pro announced the rollout of its Quick Counter tool on Tuesday, which lets brokers upload a competing loan estimate and generate a counteroffer while still on the phone.
"What Quick Counter does is help that broker work through that offer and compare pricing and then build a counteroffer right there on the phone using our technology," Niemiec said.
Hundreds of Americans call brokers every day with a competing loan estimate, he said. Each one has payoffs, taxes, insurance, APR, and closing costs to sort through.
"A true pro can sit down and peel all that apart and then take the information, plug it in, price it, but that can take hours to do properly," Niemiec said. "And what this product is doing is taking that intelligence and just supercharging the speed at which it can be done."
The tool came out of the Big Pitch at RPX, where the Rocket broker community voted it the winner. Rocket Pro built it in under two months, Niemiec said.
Seth Hasan, a mortgage broker with West Capital Lending who pitched the idea, spent about an hour a day on it with Rocket's product team.
"Rocket's probably the only lender, it is the only lender, that's actually going to listen to their broker partners with ideas and products," Hasan told Mortgage Professional America in September. "No other lender would even hear me out."
Two more Big Pitch projects are in development, Niemiec said, though he didn't give a rollout date. The three finalists said they expect to use one another's ideas once they are built.
"We're not kicking this can down the road a year," Niemiec said. "These things are coming, and they're coming quick."
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