High mortgage rates to keep US housing market subdued through 2026

A new poll of property specialists finds US mortgage rates will stay elevated for the rest of 2026, keeping housing market turnover low and home price growth well below inflation.

The benchmark 30-year mortgage rate has hovered around 6.6 percent in recent months — well above the 4.3 percent average recorded over the previous decade. Forecasters surveyed between June 1 and June 11, 2026 do not expect it to fall meaningfully any time soon.

US mortgage rates: where they’re headed

Median forecasts from the Reuters poll show the 30-year rate at 6.4 percent next quarter and 6.3 percent in the fourth.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is similarly cautious. It is forecasting that the 30-year fixed rate will remain in the 6.1 percent–6.3 percent range through the rest of 2026, assuming inflation moderates gradually.

For loan officers and brokers, the trajectory is clear: rates in the mid-sixes are the working environment for the foreseeable future.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.48 percent for the week ending June 4. That was down from 6.53 percent the prior week, per Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS).

Fed rate cuts unlikely through year-end

The Federal Reserve is no longer expected to cut interest rates this year, according to a separate Reuters poll of economists. Financial markets are currently pricing a December hike.

That outlook has hardened after months of persistent inflation and geopolitical pressure. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at around 6.5 percent as of early June 2026. Rates are expected to stay between 6 percent and 6.5 percent over the next three years, with short-term direction tied to the geopolitical climate.

For brokers advising rate-sensitive buyers, the message is to stop waiting for the Fed and start working with what’s available.

What this means for housing market activity

Home prices are forecast to rise just 1.2 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027 — both slower than inflation and below earlier projections, according to the Reuters poll. It used the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller 20-City Index as its measure.

Existing-home sales rose just 0.2 percent in April over March, hitting a 4.02 million annual pace, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Unsold inventory reached 1.47 million units, or 4.4 months of supply.

May brought some improvement. Existing-home sales increased 3.2 percent to a 4.17 million pace, with sales rising month over month in the Northeast, Midwest, and South.

Builder confidence tells a similar story. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index stood at 37 in May 2026, according to the National Association of Home Builders. This reading reflects ongoing affordability pressure weighing on buyer traffic. A balanced market typically registers above 50.

For context on the week-to-week supply picture, new listings recorded one of the sharpest single-week drops of 2026 in late May. Sellers pulled back in response to rising rates and cooling demand.

Where brokers are finding opportunity

Inventory is slowly improving. Homeowners who locked in low rates during the pandemic era have been reluctant to sell. Doing so would mean taking on a new mortgage at today’s rates. That reluctance is gradually easing, adding more listings to the market.

More listings means more conversations. For brokers who have adjusted their approach to working in a mid-6 percent rate environment, the improving supply picture is a window worth watching.

For buyers and their brokers, the math on affordability is tighter than it was at the start of the year. Hopes that rates would fall from their nine-month high have yet to fully materialize. The Reuters poll suggests patience will be required through at least the end of the year.

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