A top originator says volatility, geopolitics, and inflation have all shifted borrower expectations for 2026.
They may have slipped into the fives earlier this year, but mortgage rates now appear stuck in a range between 6% and 7%, causing loan officers on the ground to adjust their pitch accordingly.
Jaime Rhude, a loan officer with CrossCountry Mortgage based in Florida, says the rate environment heading into summer 2026 has fundamentally shifted the conversations she is having with borrowers, with geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation, and a new Federal Reserve chair all clouding the path forward.
"Rates are making an impact," Rhude told Mortgage Professional America. "Applications slowed down for a couple of weeks. I've noticed that trend where it's not as busy as it was last month."
Her observations come as Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released May 28, 2026, showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.53% — its highest level since last August — up from 6.51% the prior week.
Rate volatility rattles market
Rhude said the pace of rate movement has been as disorienting as the level itself. Within a matter of weeks, she watched conventional rates climb, from locking deals around 6% and 6.1% just a month prior to quoting closer to 6.75%.
"I watched rates jump literally probably a half a point within the last three weeks," she said. "One day you can talk to a consumer and say we're floating at this rate. The next day there's news about the war and next thing you know rates are jumping again."
The reason for the volatility is no secret: the ongoing war in Iran, which has spiked oil prices and heightened fears of a high-inflation environment – potentially pushing rates even higher and appearing to put Federal Reserve cuts off the table.
There's still no clarity on when that war might wind down, with truce talks reportedly on the table but still elusive. That's sent Treasurys on a wild ride this week, further complicating the rate outlook and giving no indication that calm is about to return to the market anytime soon.
The new Fed chair factor
Beyond the conflict overseas, Rhude pointed to the transition at the Fed as another source of market uncertainty. Kevin Warsh was sworn in as the central bank’s chair last week, with the inflation outlook leading economist Selma Hepp to describe him as “in a bit of a pickle” as decisionmakers chart their path forward.
"Everybody's kind of standing back to see what he's going to do," Rhude said. "It's starting to become more political — watching to see what's happening is impacting rates. It's amazing to see how rates will jump from one little word that somebody says."
The five-percent threshold
Like many originators across the country, Rhude has a clear view of what it would take to unlock the market.
"If we can just get them in the fives, I'll be okay — everybody would be good with that," she said.
It is a sentiment widely shared on the origination side of the industry. Pending home sales have increased for three consecutive months, with Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater noting there is "latent demand" and that homebuyers are "ready to jump back into the market if mortgage rates decline."
Rhude is not holding her breath for that shift anytime soon. She noted that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had revised their rate forecasts upward, with the conventional 30-year now expected to average around 6.375% for 2026 — above where many had hoped it would land.
"They've gone up a little bit from where they expected to be," she said. "And I don't think they're expecting any rate drops — inflation's too high, so that's the problem."
A buyer's market with limits
For now, Rhude describes the Florida market she serves as a buyer's market, but one with clear constraints. Homes in desirable neighborhoods carry price tags between $700,000 and $1 million, pricing out many of the buyers she works with. And while well-priced properties can still attract multiple offers, overpriced listings are sitting.
"It's a buyer's market here," she said. "If it's priced right, you may see some multiple offers. If it's not, it's sitting."
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