It's not the mortgage rate — and most buyers don't see it coming
Your clients may have locked in a rate, closed on a home, and moved on, but in nearly one in four cases across the US, a separate set of costs is only just beginning to surface.
Climate risk, and the financial exposure it carries long after the deed is signed, is now measurable, mapped, and showing up in HOA fees, flood insurance gaps, and mortgage delinquency rates that dwarf the national average in the hardest-hit states.
A Realtor.com Housing and Climate Risk Report found that 23.1% of US homes, representing $11.2 trillion in value, face severe or extreme risk from wind, flood, or wildfire.
Buyer demand in many of those markets has not retreated, in some cases, it has grown stronger.
Read more: The homeowners insurance crisis is now a mortgage crisis. A federal fix is being proposed
The costs brokers can't ignore
Median monthly HOA fees for homes facing severe or extreme risk stand at $192, compared with $125 for lower-risk homes — a gap of 53.6%.
The largest percentage differences appear in Delaware, South Carolina, and Oregon at the state level, and in Portland, Washington D.C., and Seattle at the metro level.
Active National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) policies fell from 3.62 million to 3.45 million between May 2025 and May 2026, with Texas recording the largest decline at 7.8%.
Oklahoma, Idaho, Mississippi, and Alabama each saw active policy counts fall more than 6%.
The retreat follows the rollout of NFIP's Risk Rating 2.0 model, which ties premiums more directly to a property's individual flood exposure.
Median annual premiums are projected to nearly double over time, from $689 in December 2022 to $1,288, according to the Realtor.com report.
Mortgage performance data captures where those pressures eventually land. Louisiana and Mississippi have sustained serious mortgage delinquency rates well above the national average, reaching 1.7% and 1.4% respectively by September 2025, against a national average of 0.8%.
Florida and Texas, which started 2023 near that average, have since climbed above 1.0%.
A May 2026 Urban Institute report found that roughly one in six new homebuyers is now spending more than 3% of household income on insurance alone, before accounting for mortgage payments, property taxes, or maintenance costs.
"Having the full financial picture, including future insurance costs and coverage availability, matters just as much as the purchase price," Xu said.
"There's nothing wrong with choosing a high-risk area for affordability or lifestyle, as long as it's an informed choice."
When affordability and risk collide
In California's Santa Clara County, homes facing severe or extreme risk are priced at just 78% of the price per square foot of lower-risk properties, and they draw 48% more views per listing.
In Los Angeles County, the same pattern holds: severe or extreme risk homes are priced at 75% of safer counterparts and draw 23% more listing views.
Not every market offers a discount, though. In Anne Arundel County, Maryland, severe or extreme risk homes are priced 44% higher than the price per square foot of lower-risk homes, driven by Chesapeake Bay waterfront access.
In Llano County, Texas, severe or extreme risk homes trade at twice the price of comparable lower-risk properties, reflecting demand for Hill Country ranches and river retreats.
"Price is still the biggest motivator for a lot of home shoppers, even in places where climate risk is well known," said Jiayi Xu, economist at Realtor.com.
"But that doesn't mean the risk disappears. It shows up later, in insurance premiums, HOA fees and financing, often after the sale is already done."
The dynamics resonate with what mortgage professionals on the ground have described for months.
Oliver Orlicki, founder of the Orlicki Group, told Mortgage Professional America in January that the scramble for HOA insurance coverage in Florida's condo market has pushed associations to the brink, forcing either sharply higher monthly dues or special assessments on owners.
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