Existing-home sales predicted to drop in July

Low inventory of new and existing homes affected existing-home sales during the month

Existing-home sales predicted to drop in July
Sales of existing homes in July are expected to dip to a seasonally adjusted annual figure between 5.32 million and 5.68 million (with a targeted number of 5.50 million), according to online real estate transaction marketplace Ten-X.

The forecast represents a 0.4% decrease from the June sales figure reported by the National Association of Realtors, but a 2.0% increase from the sales in July 2016.

"Extraordinarily low levels of both new and existing home inventory appear to finally be catching up with the housing market," said Rick Sharga, executive vice president at Ten-X. "This is especially a problem in some of the high-demand metro areas like coastal California and the Pacific Northwest, and there's virtually nothing available for entry-level buyers, which is why first-time homebuyer numbers continue to lag behind historic norms."

The Ten-X Residential Real Estate Nowcast, which combines industry data, proprietary company transactional data and Google search activity to predict market trends, predicts an increase in median existing home prices with a forecast between $251,219 and $277,663, with a target price point of $264,441, an increase of 0.2% from June and a gain of 8.3% from last year.

"U.S. home sales continue to zig-zag month to month as strong demand clashes with persistently low supply. The resulting price gains are beneficial for existing homeowners, but restrain prospective buyers," said Peter Muoio, chief economist at Ten-X. "While there are concerns around declining home affordability and its impact on potential buyers, the housing market should remain on solid footing thanks to a firm labor market and rising wages."

A month ago, Ten-X predicted a slight decrease in June existing home sales and a solid year-over-year gain in existing home prices.  Both predictions were aligned with the National Association of Realtors report.


Related stories:
Low supply drives decline in June existing-home sales
Existing home sales slip in May