Record July prices and a one-year rate high are pushing would-be buyers to the sidelines
US home sales fell to their lowest level in nearly two years in July, as record-high prices, climbing mortgage rates, and economic anxiety kept buyers sidelined, according to data published by Redfin.
Closed home sales dropped 4.1% from June on a seasonally adjusted basis to 285,312, a figure that reinforces the affordability wall that has defined the US housing market through much of 2026.
Pending home sales, a real-time measure of demand, fell 2.5% month over month to their lowest point since December 2025.
The median US home-sale price rose 3.2% year over year to $407,730, the highest July level on record, while the monthly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.54%, a one-year high.
Moreover, 14% of July's home-sale agreements fell through before closing, the highest share since 2023.
"The housing market suffered from a mid-summer slump in July as would-be buyers grappled with record-high home prices, increasing mortgage rates and growing financial insecurity," said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin.
"Many Americans simply can't afford today's housing costs, while others are holding off because they're worried about the economy and/or their job security. The silver lining is that buyers who can afford a home may be able to negotiate on price and get concessions from sellers who are eager to offload their house."
Existing-home sales fell 1.7% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million, the second consecutive monthly decline, according to data released Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).https://t.co/KM5arNzNVo
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) August 11, 2026
Texas and Seattle lead the retreat
The steepest declines were concentrated in Texas and the Pacific Northwest.
Closed sales fell 12.6% year over year in San Antonio, 10% in Dallas, and 9.9% in Fort Worth.
Detroit (-9.3%) and Seattle (-9.1%) rounded out the five weakest markets nationally.
Pending sales told an even sharper story in Seattle, down 15.6% year over year, the worst reading nationally. The metro's $809,479 median home price, roughly double the national average, collided with an unsteady tech job market.
"Seattle is a tech-driven market, and right now a lot of buyers are feeling cautious about layoffs, AI and job security," said Chase Costello, a Redfin Premier agent in the Seattle area.
"Buyers are still out there, but they're taking more time and being more careful."
In Texas, years of aggressive homebuilding have left buyers with ample choice and reduced urgency, while builder incentives on new construction are pressuring resale sellers in some neighborhoods.
Where demand is holding up
Not every market is pulling back. West Palm Beach, Florida, led the nation in closed sales growth at 17.1% year over year, powered by affluent buyers largely insulated from rate sensitivity.
San Francisco followed at 8.5%, supported by continued AI-sector hiring. Milwaukee posted 7% growth, aided by relative affordability as the typical home there sells for approximately $383,805.
On the supply side, new listings slipped to their lowest level since October 2024. Existing home sales through June had already pointed to a market operating well below its historical average, and pending home sales posted their steepest monthly drop of 2026 just weeks prior, suggesting the mid-summer correction has not yet run its course.
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