Contract signings tumble in June as record home prices and high rates sideline buyers
Pending home sales fell far more sharply than expected in June, as near-record mortgage rates and an all-time high median home price pushed buyers further to the sidelines, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The Pending Home Sales Index dropped 5.4% from May to 72.5. On a year-over-year basis, contract signings slipped 0.3%.
All four major US regions recorded monthly declines. The Northeast fell 3.0% from May but still posted a 2.2% year-over-year gain, the strongest regional performance nationally.
The Midwest dropped 8.9% month over month, while the South and West declined both monthly and annually.
Year over year, the South fell 0.9% and the West 1.1%, according to NAR data.
| Region | Month over month | Year over year |
|---|---|---|
| National | ▼ 5.4% | ▼ 0.3% |
| Northeast | ▼ 3.0% | ▲ 2.2% |
| Midwest | ▼ 8.9% | ▲ 0.3% |
| South | ▼ 4.1% | ▼ 0.9% |
| West | ▼ 4.7% | ▼ 1.1% |
| ▲ Year-over-year gain | ▼ Decline | All figures reflect June 2026 data | ||
A difficult summer for buyers
Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR in Washington, D.C., attributed the pullback to a convergence of forces squeezing would-be buyers.
"The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers," Yun said.
"However, job gains can help support housing demand."
The median sales price for an existing US home reached approximately $441,000 in June, an all-time high, according to NAR.
Mortgage rates hovered near 6.5% during the month and have since risen further. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit its highest reading since August 2025, reaching 6.65% in the week ending July 10, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Regional bright spots emerge
Despite the broad monthly decline, several metro areas held up on an annual basis. Among the 50 largest US markets, Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, Virginia-North Carolina, led the nation with a 15.4% year-over-year gain in pending sales, followed by Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, California, at 15.2% and Kansas City, Missouri-Kansas, at 14.4%, according to Realtor.com Economics data.
Richmond, Virginia, and Buffalo-Cheektowaga, New York, rounded out the top five with gains of 14.0% and 12.1%, respectively.
| # | Metro area | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC | ▲ 15.4% |
| 2 | Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA | ▲ 15.2% |
| 3 | Kansas City, MO-KS | ▲ 14.4% |
| 4 | Richmond, VA | ▲ 14.0% |
| 5 | Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY | ▲ 12.1% |
| 6 | Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX | ▲ 11.1% |
| 7 | San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA | ▲ 10.7% |
| 8 | Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA | ▲ 9.6% |
| 9 | Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | ▲ 9.5% |
| 10 | St. Louis, MO-IL | ▲ 9.1% |
| Figures reflect year-over-year percentage change in pending home sales, June 2026. Rankings based on the 50 largest US metro areas. | ||
The squeeze hits first-time buyers hardest. These buyers are increasingly turning to unconventional financing strategies to bridge a widening gap between income and access.
Matt Gouge, mortgage broker and founding partner at UMortgage, told Mortgage Professional America earlier this year that recalibrating expectations has become a central part of serving that segment. "They have to start thinking about housing, especially their first house, as a stepping stone, not a forever home," Gouge said.
The MBA projects the 30-year fixed rate will hold in the 6.1%–6.3% range through the remainder of 2026. Combined with still-elevated prices, that trajectory suggests the US housing market is set to remain subdued through 2026 and recovery for first-time buyers in particular remains well out of reach.
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