Sellers swamp buyers by nearly 2 to 1

Qualified homebuyers who have stayed on the sidelines now hold more leverage than they have in years.

New data from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket Companies, shows there were an estimated 48.5% more home sellers than buyers across the United States in June. The figure held near record levels since a peak of 50.1% last December and mortgage brokers can use it to their advantage with clients ready to act.

Seller volume climbed to approximately 1,496,490 in June, the highest level since 2020, while buyers numbered around 1,007,735, up just 0.5% from May. Because both sides of the market ticked up at roughly the same pace, the overall seller-buyer imbalance held largely steady.

"In most of the country, there are more homes to choose from, fewer bidding wars and more room to negotiate on price, closing costs and repairs," said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin.

"It's worth shopping around, negotiating aggressively and asking for concessions. Many sellers are more willing to compromise than they have been in years."

Sun Belt cities lead the buyer's market

Roughly 70% of US metro areas tracked by Redfin, 33 of 47 analyzed, qualify as buyer's markets in June, with the Sun Belt accounting for the most lopsided conditions.

Miami topped the list with an estimated 140% more sellers than buyers, driven by record home prices, soaring insurance premiums, and rising condominium association fees that have pushed owners to list while sidelining prospective purchasers.

Nashville followed at 129%, then Houston (124%), San Antonio (117%), and Austin (101%).

Years of aggressive homebuilding in Texas and Florida drew pandemic-era demand that has since cooled sharply. With mortgage rates holding near 6.5% as brokers navigate the subdued US housing environment demand in those metros has not kept pace with the new inventory. Sellers are facing longer days on market and growing competitive pressure.

For mortgage professionals, it is a window worth communicating clearly: well-qualified borrowers in these cities can negotiate on repairs, closing costs, and rate buydowns in ways that were not possible even 18 months ago.

Matt Gouge, mortgage broker and founding partner at UMortgage, framed the shift in buyer psychology in an earlier interview with Mortgage Professional America.

"Buyers are coming to terms with the current state of affordability and housing. They're just not fighting it anymore," he said, noting that clients who had resisted the market were beginning to engage once they recognized the negotiating environment had changed. 

Northeast and Bay Area buck the trend

Seven major metros remain seller's markets, led by Nassau County, New York, where sellers were outnumbered by buyers by 38% — a dynamic rooted in the region's persistent housing shortage.

Milwaukee (-30%), Montgomery County, Pennsylvania (-21%), Newark and New Brunswick in New Jersey (both -21%), Providence, Rhode Island (-18%), and San Francisco (-16%) round out the list.

The Northeast's advantage stems from decades of constrained construction — limited land, restrictive zoning, and modest population growth have kept resale inventory tight even as homeowners locked into low pandemic-era mortgage rates remain reluctant to sell.

San Francisco's seller's market is driven by different dynamics: the Bay Area's technology boom has produced a deep pool of high-income buyers using salaries and equity from the artificial intelligence sector to remain competitive.

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