Sellers outnumber homebuyers by 70.5% nationwide in October, the widest gap in Redfin’s records since at least 2013
Just three of the 50 most populous US metro areas qualified as seller’s markets in October, the fewest in records dating back to 2016, matching April 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic paused home transactions nationwide.
That is according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket, in Seattle.
Nationally, sellers outnumbered buyers by 70.5%, the widest margin in data going back to 2013 and the sixth consecutive monthly record, up from 65.6% in September, as the seller-buyer gap continued widening throughout 2026.
Northeast markets hold as competition defies the national picture
All three seller’s markets are in the Northeast: Nassau County, N.Y. (-24.7% fewer sellers than buyers), Newark, N.J. (-14.3%), and Montgomery County, Pa. (-12.1%).
Each weakened slightly from September, when Nassau County’s gap was 28.3%, Newark’s was 17.6%, and Montgomery County’s was 20.1%.
Milwaukee, a seller’s market in September, shifted to balanced status.
Constrained homebuilding and proximity to major employment centers in the greater New York City area have kept supply tight and bidding competitive.
Home-sale prices averaged 3.3% year-over-year growth across those three markets in October, against just 0.3% across all buyer’s markets, a direct reflection of competing offers sustaining valuations.
“Buyers looking in these pockets of the Northeast should be prepared for a very different experience than buyers elsewhere in the country,” said Asad Khan, senior economist at Redfin, in Seattle.
“They may have less room to negotiate, especially on desirable, move-in-ready homes, and could face multiple-offer situations. If you’re shopping in one of these markets, it’s especially important to know your budget, be ready to act when the right home comes along and avoid getting swept up in a bidding war.”
| # | Metro | Buyer edge | vs Sep |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassau County, N.Y. | 24.7% | ↓ 3.6pp |
| 2 | Newark, N.J. | 14.3% | ↓ 3.3pp |
| 3 | Montgomery County, Pa. | 12.1% | ↓ 8.0pp |
| # | Metro | Seller surplus | vs Sep |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miami, Fla. | 195.8% | ↑ 35.3pp |
| 2 | Nashville, Tenn. | 159.5% | ↑ 25.2pp |
| 3 | Las Vegas, Nev. | 149.9% | ↑ 27.1pp |
| 4 | Austin, Texas | 124.8% | ↓ 3.4pp |
| 5 | Dallas, Texas | 118.6% | ↓ 1.9pp |
Source: Redfin Buyers vs. Sellers Report, October 2026. A seller's market is defined as one where buyers outnumber sellers by more than 10%. A buyer's market is defined as one where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%. MoM = month-over-month change in percentage-point (pp) gap versus September 2026. All figures refer to the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas.
Rising rates push the buyer pool to its lowest level on record
Nationally, an estimated 895,752 homebuyers were active in October, the lowest figure in Redfin’s data since 2013. That's down 2% from September and the sixth straight monthly decline.
Mortgage rates averaged 7.33% in October, rising from 6.86% the prior month. Meanwhile, 1,526,984 sellers remained active, the highest since March 2020, pushing seller concessions to a new peak in the deepening buyer’s market.
Glen Weinberg of Fairview Commercial Lending says post-election mortgage rate relief may be temporary, with volatility likely to remain the dominant theme for lenders and brokers. https://t.co/HH8yJviJ55
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 9, 2026
“Mortgage rate stability is crucial and more important than simply lower rates. Most buyers don’t require rates to return to 4% although that would certainly be welcome. They need confidence in the market,” Jay Lessard, mortgage broker at Sonoran Lending, in Arizona, previously told Mortgage Professional America.
“Volatility tends to slow activity: builders postpone new development, sellers remain on the sidelines (particularly those with low existing rates) and buyers hesitate. When rates drift modestly lower or even just remain range-bound and predictable, buyers are more willing to act, sellers list their homes, and overall transaction activity increases.”
Miami had 195.8% more sellers than buyers in October, the widest surplus nationally, ahead of Nashville, Tenn. (159.5%) and Las Vegas (149.9%).
Six metros, including Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco, were balanced.
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