Rising housing inventory and retreating buyer demand have pushed seller surpluses to a record in 41 of the top 50 US metros
The gap between US home sellers and active buyers reached a 13-year extreme in September, with an estimated 62.6% more sellers than buyers in the national housing market, according to a new report from Redfin.
The figure eclipses August’s 56.9% surplus and marks the fourth consecutive record-breaking month, a trend with direct implications for mortgage brokers positioning purchase clients.
Buyer count falls to a 13-year low
Nationwide homebuyer activity dropped to approximately 928,892 in September, the lowest level in Redfin data going back to 2013. That's a 2.4% decline from August and the fifth consecutive monthly fall.
Active sellers reached an estimated 1,510,784, the highest since March 2020, up 1.2% month over month.
The buildup reflects homes lingering unsold rather than a sudden surge in new listings; each month, fresh inventory adds to an existing pool that buyers have not absorbed.
As the US buyer’s market hit its strongest point in years, the imbalance has deepened with every month in 2026. September marks its furthest point yet.
“This is a buyer’s market born out of caution, not strength,” said Asad Khan, senior economist at Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket, based in Seattle.
“The irony is that in terms of supply, these are some of the best conditions for buyers in many years — but they have arrived at a time when costs are so high that fewer people can afford to take advantage of them.”
Research from Redfin found September pending home sales dropped to their lowest level in more than a decade, while a record share of home purchase agreements were canceled outside of the pandemic period. https://t.co/kScjszysAN
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) October 13, 2026
Sun Belt metros widen their buyer advantage
Forty-one of the 50 most populous US metros are now classified as buyer’s markets, an all-time high in Redfin’s records. A buyer’s market, in Redfin’s definition, is one where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%.
Miami registered the sharpest imbalance at 158.9% more sellers than buyers in September, up from 134.5% in August.
Tampa followed at 103.7%, with Nashville, TN, also among the most imbalanced markets nationally.
All 13 of the most lopsided markets are in the Sun Belt, with four each in Texas and Florida.
The imbalance is partly structural: builders have continued adding supply in those states even as buyer demand has slowed under elevated mortgage rates.
| # | Metro | Seller surplus |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MiamiFlorida | +158.9% |
| 2 | NashvilleTennessee | 100%+* |
| 3 | HoustonTexas | 100%+* |
| 4 | TampaFlorida | +103.7% |
| 5 | WarrenMichigan | +47.1% |
| # | Metro | Buyer surplus |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassau CountyNew York | −28.6% |
| 2 | Montgomery CountyPennsylvania | −22.7% |
| 3 | NewarkNew Jersey | −18.5% |
| 4 | MilwaukeeWisconsin | −16.1% |
| 5 | San FranciscoCalifornia | −10.6% |
* Redfin ranked Nashville and Houston 2nd and 3rd nationally. Exact figures were not disclosed; all 13 top buyer's markets exceeded 100% seller surplus in September 2026.
Source: Redfin Buyers vs. Sellers Report, September 2026.
In Florida specifically, rising insurance and homeowners association fees have compounded affordability pressure.
Five metros retained seller status: Nassau County, NY (28.6% fewer sellers than buyers), Montgomery County, PA (-22.7%), Newark, NJ (-18.5%), Milwaukee (-16.1%), and San Francisco (-10.6%), where constrained construction and strong employment demand have sustained buyer competition.
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