Pending sales hit a six-month low as new listings climb, giving buyers room to negotiate
More homes are hitting the US market, but fewer buyers are purchasing them — a divergence that is quietly handing serious house hunters their best negotiating window in months.
New listings rose 0.4% week over week to 376,235 on a seasonally adjusted basis for the four weeks ending August 23, their highest level since April, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.
Active inventory climbed 0.5% week over week to 1,504,085, its strongest reading since May.
Pending home sales, by contrast, fell 1.1% week over week to 307,830 — the lowest level since February 2026 — and are down 3.1% year over year.
Affordability holds buyers back
The central friction is cost. The median US home-sale price rose 1.9% year over year to $400,649 for the period, according to Redfin.
The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.65% for the week ending August 20, per Freddie Mac, near its highest level in 13 months, translating to a median monthly mortgage payment of approximately $2,600 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Mortgage purchase applications fell 0.3% week over week for the period ending August 21, and are down 5% year over year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
That decline comes despite touring activity rising 8% from the start of the year as of August 15, per ShowingTime. That's a gap that suggests buyers are looking, but not yet committing.
US home prices rose 2.1% year over year in Q2 2026, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), but inflation continued to outpace appreciation, extending real-term home price declines despite positive nominal growth.https://t.co/7ilIElFiKx
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) August 25, 2026
Where buyers hold the most leverage
Supply reached 3.8 months of inventory nationally for the period, up from 3.7, still below the four-to-five-month range considered balanced, but trending toward it.
In several southern and western markets, conditions have shifted more meaningfully toward buyers. Redfin identified Miami, Nashville, and much of Texas as markets where buyers may be able to negotiate prices below asking or secure concessions including mortgage-rate buydowns.
A separate Redfin analysis found that late August and early September represent prime buying windows in 11 US metro areas, including much of California, Seattle, and a pair of New York City suburbs.
Regionally, the steepest year-over-year price declines appeared in Seattle (-4.6%), Austin, Texas (-3.7%), and Fort Worth, Texas (-1.7%), per Redfin's metro-level data.
On the supply side, new listings rose most sharply in Virginia Beach, Virginia (up 14.3%), San Jose, California (up 13.3%), and Boston (up 9%).
Pending sales growth was strongest in West Palm Beach, Florida (up 4.7%), while Seattle posted the sharpest demand decline at 18.1%.
Brokers advising clients on timing should note that rate concessions and seller-paid buydowns have become increasingly common negotiating tools this year in these softer markets.
Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin in Seattle, offered a direct framework for both buyers and their brokers. "Buyers have an opportunity to get a deal done before the market potentially picks back up after Labor Day," Zhao said.
"House hunters should consider homes that have been listed for several weeks; sellers of those homes may be willing to accept an offer under asking price, provide concessions like a mortgage-rate buydown or make repairs based on an inspection. Sellers should resist the urge to price based on what a neighbor got a year or two ago: Pricing a home correctly from the start can be the difference between attracting a serious buyer and lingering on the market."
The share of homes sold above list price rose slightly to 26.3%, up from approximately 25% a year earlier, while 20.8% of active listings carried a price reduction as of August 23, per Redfin. The average sale-to-list ratio improved marginally to 98.8%.
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