Real estate crash – which markets will survive?

Today's historic run is a hark back to the 2008 GFC

Real estate crash – which markets will survive?

The most robust markets of today will also be the hardest hit of tomorrow if the housing market crashes, as observed by Fortune and a team of data scientists at Home.LLC.

The companies have built a forecast model to assess the risk factors across the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the nation, grouping them into three tiers: low risk, moderate risk and high risk. Those labeled high risk are set for the worst impact should a housing correction arise over the next few years.

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Eleven regional markets received a high-risk label, namely: Atlanta, Georgia; Boise, Idaho; Cape Coral, Florida; Deltona, Florida; Des Moines, Iowa; Jacksonville, Florida; Lakeland, Florida; Miami, Florida; North Port, Florida; Orlando, Florida; and Winston Salem, North Carolina.

Nine of the markets are located in the nation’s booming Southeast corridor. Fortune claimed that Jacksonville, Atlanta and Orlando made the list given the massive number of homebuilding taking place, which would leave them at a higher risk of oversupply if the bubble bursts.

“As workers in high-cost Northern cities like New York, Boston, and Chicago realized during the pandemic they’d be able to do their job from home for the foreseeable future, many departed for the relatively low-cost Southeast,” Fortune reported. “A similar phenomenon happened in Boise as it became the top destination for professionals departing California over the past two years. But if work-from-home loses momentum, so could places like Boise and the Southeast corridor.”

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Meanwhile, Fortune identified 37 housing markets that are considered low risk, some of which included: Boston, Massachusetts; Columbus, Ohio; Denver, Colorado; Grand Rapids, Michigan; Los Angeles, California; Portland, Oregon; Sacramento, California; San Diego, California; San Jose-Sunnyvale, California; Seattle, Washington; and Honolulu, Hawaii.