September deal cancellations hit a record as inventory surged and buyers retreated across all 50 major US metros
US pending home sales — a leading indicator of housing market activity that measures signed contracts not yet closed — fell to their lowest level since spring 2014 in September, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage owned by Rocket Companies.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.40% for the week ending October 8, its highest level since November 16, 2023. The benchmark climbed 12 basis points from 7.28% the prior week and is up sharply from 6.30% a year ago.
Contract signings dropped 4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the sharpest single-month decline in more than three years.
Pending sales fell simultaneously in all 50 of the most populous US metropolitan areas for the first time since September 2023, the last sustained stretch when rates exceeded 7%.
The only comparable freeze in recent history is April 2020, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic brought the housing market to a near-complete halt.
West Coast markets absorbed the deepest declines. Seattle fell 24.4% year over year, followed by Los Angeles (-16%), San Diego (-15.8%) and Anaheim, California (-15.5%). Elevated home prices in those metros amplified affordability damage from rising borrowing costs.
The pattern of buyers retreating when rates breach 7% has proved consistent across multiple 2026 market cycles.
What does a 14.5% cancellation rate mean for the market?
Total active inventory rose 1.2% month over month to its highest level since March 2020, Redfin reported, while 60.5% of homes sold below original list price in September. That extended an 18-month streak of roughly three in five homes closing below asking.
The median US home sale price rose 1.3% year over year to $393,895, the smallest annual gain since February.
The deterioration had been building for weeks. A record 14.5% of homebuying deals that went under contract in September were subsequently canceled — the highest share in Redfin’s records outside the early pandemic months — reflecting a buyer’s market in which house hunters increasingly exercise the option to walk away.
Jacksonville, Florida, led major metros at 19.9%, followed by Tampa, Florida (18.8%) and Las Vegas (18.6%).
| Rank | Metro | Pending sales YoY change |
|---|---|---|
| Biggest declines | ||
| 1 | Seattle, WA | -24.4% |
| 2 | Los Angeles, CA | -16.0% |
| 3 | San Diego, CA | -15.8% |
| 4 | Anaheim, CA | -15.5% |
| Smallest declines | ||
| 1 | Montgomery County, PA | -1.6% |
| 2 | Pittsburgh, PA | -2.1% |
| 3 | West Palm Beach, FL | -2.2% |
| Source: Redfin, September 2026. All figures year-over-year, seasonally adjusted. Pending sales declined in all 50 of the most populous US metros. | ||
Sellers face a recalibrated negotiating environment
Chen Zhao, head of economic research at Redfin, acknowledged the disruption while pointing to advantages for buyers who remain active.
“It’s not surprising that when rates climb above 7%, fewer people buy homes because fewer people can afford them,” Zhao said.
“But dig a little deeper, and there’s a silver lining on both sides. For buyers, less competition means more room to negotiate: on price, on closing costs, on repairs, and sometimes sellers even pay for a mortgage-rate buydown.”
Brian Connelly, a Redfin Premier agent based in Boston, Massachusetts, described a market fundamentally changed from the conditions of the prior decade.
“For the last decade, there was almost a certainty that if you listed a home, it would sell — and it would usually sell quickly, with multiple offers,” Connelly said.
“Now, the calculus has changed.”
He advised sellers to price 5% to 10% below initial expectations and to present properties in immaculate condition to limit days on market.
Closed home sales also fell 1.6% month over month to their lowest level since late 2023.
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