Not every NFL city is winning the affordability game this season
The housing markets tied to professional football's biggest cities are heading into the 2026 season on uneven footing.
First American Data & Analytics' 2026 Housing Affordability Power Rankings analyzed 30 NFL markets by year-over-year change in affordability through June, using the firm's Real House Price Index (RHPI).
Of those markets, 28 recorded improvements, but the gap between the best and worst performers has stretched well beyond what aggregate national figures suggest.
Seattle tops the table, Tampa and Las Vegas close behind
The top tier, which First American calls affordability heavyweights, posted an average improvement of 8.2% from a year ago, according to Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American Data & Analytics.
Income growth drove the bulk of those gains, contributing 4.3 percentage points on average, with softening house prices adding a further 0.6 points.
Seattle led all 30 markets with an 11.2% year-over-year improvement. Income gains of 6.3 percentage points, the highest in the entire analysis, powered most of that result, with falling prices adding 1.7 points.
Tampa, Florida followed at 10.7%, and Las Vegas came in third at 9.3%. Kansas City offered a different path: a 5.9-point income contribution absorbed a 3.3-point drag from rising prices, demonstrating that strong earnings growth can offset price pressure where local labor markets remain tight.
Markets in the middle of the pack averaged a 4.1% affordability improvement, roughly half the heavyweight pace, but with a meaningful catch.
Mortgage rate relief accounted for approximately 3.3 of those percentage points, leaving this group more exposed to borrowing cost increases than cities where income and price fundamentals carried more of the load.
Higher mortgage rates have already dragged housing affordability lower in Q2 2026, a development that hits rate-dependent markets hardest.
| Market | Tier | YoY Change | Income Impact | Price Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle, WA | Heavyweight | +11.2% | +6.3 pp | ▼ Falling (−1.7 pp) |
| Tampa, FL | Heavyweight | +10.7% | — | — |
| Las Vegas, NV | Heavyweight | +9.3% | — | — |
| Kansas City, MO | Heavyweight | — | +5.9 pp | ▲ Rising (+3.3 pp drag) |
| Heavyweight group average | +8.2% | +4.3 pp avg | Falling (−0.6 pp avg) | |
| Dallas, TX | Middle pack | — | +0.9 pp avg* | ▼ Falling (−0.9 pp avg*) |
| Phoenix, AZ | Middle pack | — | +0.9 pp avg* | ▼ Falling (−0.9 pp avg*) |
| Houston, TX | Middle pack | — | +0.9 pp avg* | ▼ Falling (−0.9 pp avg*) |
| Jacksonville, FL | Middle pack | — | +0.9 pp avg* | ▼ Falling (−0.9 pp avg*) |
| Washington, DC | Middle pack | — | +2.5 pp avg** | ▲ Rising (+2.4 pp drag**) |
| New York, NY | Middle pack | — | +2.5 pp avg** | ▲ Rising (+2.4 pp drag**) |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Middle pack | — | +2.5 pp avg** | ▲ Rising (+2.4 pp drag**) |
| New Orleans, LA | Middle pack | — | +2.5 pp avg** | ▲ Rising (+2.4 pp drag**) |
| Los Angeles, CA | Middle pack | — | +2.5 pp avg** | ▲ Rising (+2.4 pp drag**) |
| Boston, MA | Middle pack | — | +2.5 pp avg** | ▲ Rising (+2.4 pp drag**) |
| Middle pack group average | +4.1% | — | Rate relief: +3.3 pp avg | |
| Milwaukee, WI | Underdog | — | Minimal | ▲ Rising (−5.8 pp drag) |
| Cleveland, OH | Underdog | −2.0% | Negative | ▲ Rising |
| Underdog group average | +0.9% | +1.0 pp avg | — | |
* Group A middle-pack average (Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Jacksonville): income and price figures are group averages, not market-specific.
** Group B middle-pack average (Washington DC, New York, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Los Angeles, Boston): income and price figures are group averages, not market-specific.
— Individual figure not disclosed in source report; group average shown in italicised row.
pp = percentage points. Price trend: falling = improved affordability; rising = reduced affordability.
Source: First American Data & Analytics, 2026 Housing Affordability Power Rankings, Sam Williamson, Senior Economist. Data through June 2026.
Rising rates are narrowing late-season gains
The rankings captured conditions through June. Williamson noted that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reached 6.7% in early August, its highest level in more than a year, eroding some of the affordability progress built during the first half of the year.
The 30-year rate as it climbs toward its 2026 high, with the benchmark sitting at 6.66% by late August, up 10 basis points year over year, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS).
"Stronger income growth and softer house prices give the leaders more room to avoid the pressure, while more rate-dependent markets could lose ground as the season goes on," Williamson said.
At the bottom of the table, two markets lost ground altogether. Milwaukee absorbed the steepest price drag in the analysis at 5.8 percentage points, with income growth offering minimal offset.
Cleveland was the only market to record both declining incomes and rising prices, worsening affordability by approximately 2 percentage points from a year ago.
Markets with stronger income and price fundamentals — Seattle, Tampa, Las Vegas — carry more buffer as rates trim the gains built through June.
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