Four weeks of falling rates offer brokers some breathing room, but a hot inflation print threatens to cut it short
Four weeks of falling mortgage rates have offered borrowers a measure of relief — but that calm may not last.
October’s Consumer Price Index came in hotter than expected, and Federal Reserve officials are signaling a potential December rate hike that could quickly undo recent gains.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) fell to 7.11% for the week ending November 12, a fourth consecutive decline and its lowest point in seven weeks, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). That's down 7 basis points from 7.18% the week before.
The 15-year FRM fell to 6.45% from 6.57% the prior week.
A year ago, the 30-year averaged 6.24% and the 15-year 5.49%, leaving today’s borrowers roughly 90 basis points above where they stood in November 2025.
The Fed and the bond market
The rate decline mirrors a pullback in the 10-year Treasury yield, the primary benchmark for 30-year mortgage pricing, which had reached its highest level since 2002.
However, pressure on the bond market intensified Thursday as oil prices climbed. The 10-year Treasury note rose more than 7 basis points to 5.068%, a level that historically feeds directly into what borrowers pay at the closing table.
The 2-year note, more closely tied to near-term Fed policy, jumped more than 11 basis points to 4.843%, while the 30-year bond added more than 5 basis points to reach 5.40%.
Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller this week warned that a 50-basis-point hike should be on the table at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting should inflation remain elevated.
October’s Consumer Price Index beat forecasts and pushed the 10-year yield back toward 5%.
CME FedWatch now prices a 25-basis-point December hike at 93% odds, with a 67% probability of a further quarter-point move in January 2027.
Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage in New York and a 44-year industry veteran, said in expert analysis of the December hike outlook and what it means for US mortgage brokers that December is now the pivotal meeting.
“The bond market expected the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but anticipates one or two rate increases in the coming months, possibly beginning in December,” she said.
“Where mortgage rates go next will largely depend on oil prices and the war in Iran.”
What brokers should watch next
Existing-home sales fell to their lowest level since August 2010, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported, as affordability pressures continue to sideline buyers.
Fitch Ratings Senior Director Eric Orenstein, in recent comments, reinforced the near-term earnings pressure: “The market expects tighter monetary policy down the line, propping up mortgage rates above 7% for the near term. We expect the smaller origination market in 2027 to limit earnings upside for mortgage companies.”
Stay updated with the freshest mortgage news. Get exclusive interviews, breaking news, and industry events in your inbox, and always be the first to know by subscribing to our FREE daily newsletter.
