Lower rates to start 2018 but forecast is volatile

The average rates for mortgages have started the year lower but the outlook suggests the trend will be in the opposite direction

Lower rates to start 2018 but forecast is volatile
The average rates for mortgages have started the year lower but the outlook suggests the trend will be in the opposite direction.

Freddie Mac’s weekly survey of mortgage rates for the week ending January 4 shows a decrease for 30-year FRMs to an average 3.95% with an average 0.5 point, down from 3.99% a week earlier and down from 4.20% a year ago.

The rate for a 15-year FRM averaged 3.38% this week with an average 0.5 point, down from 3.44% last week which was also the rate a year ago.

For 5-year ARMs, the average rate of 3.45% with an average 0.4 point was down from 3.47% a week ago and 3.33% a year ago.

“With the FOMC minutes showing continued support for gradual increases in policy rates from many participants and inflation rates remaining low, there isn't much upward pressure on long-term rates at the moment,” said Freddie Mac deputy chief economist Len Kiefer. “Whether that changes due to a tighter labor market and the economic impact of tax reform remains to be seen."

Bankrate analyst see volatile year

While Freddie Mac remains dovish on rates for now, Bankrate.com’s chief financial analyst Greg McBride, CFA is expecting an increase during a volatile 2018.

By the end of the year he expects rates to average below 4% at least once, spiking above 4.5% but closing the year at around 4.5%.

He is also expecting HELOC borrowers to see 75 basis point increases in their rates in short order thanks to 3 more Fed rate hikes. By the end of 2018, HELOCs will average around 5.85% he says.