ICE August data shows serious delinquencies rising as prepayment speeds fall to a 17-month low
The US mortgage market held its footing in August but sent diverging signals beneath the headline. Foreclosure inventory growth slowed while seriously delinquent loans snapped a five-month run of declines, according to the ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance released Monday by Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE).
The national delinquency rate rose 14 basis points (bps) to 3.53% in August, effectively flat once prior-month calendar effects are stripped out, ICE reported.
The rate is up 10 bps year over year yet remains 35 bps below the August 2019 pre-pandemic benchmark, below every pre-pandemic August on record.
Serious delinquencies and foreclosure inventory under pressure
The more telling movement came deeper in the data. Seriously delinquent loans — those 90 or more days past due — rose by 11,000 to 574,000 in August, ending five consecutive monthly declines.
At 1.04% of active loans, the serious delinquency rate now matches the 2017–2019 pre-pandemic August average of 1.03%.
Earlier-stage delinquencies also crept higher in August, though loans 30 and 60 days past due remain down 21,000 from a year ago.
The foreclosure pipeline reflected similar nuance. Starts fell 6% in August, though they remain 29% above year-ago levels.
Completed foreclosure sales dipped 2%, running at just 57% of August 2019's pace despite a 12% annual gain.
The pre-sale inventory rate held unchanged at 0.54%, its highest reading since February 2020, while active foreclosure inventory rose by just 2,000, the smallest monthly build since November 2025. The total count is still up 89,000, or 41%, from a year earlier.
Signs of FHA foreclosure pressure had been building since at least May, suggesting the August reading extends rather than accelerates that underlying trend.
Separately, TransUnion's 2026 consumer credit analysis had flagged an emerging rise in mortgage arrears linked to sustained affordability pressure and softer labor conditions.
Edward Seiler of the Mortgage Bankers Association says monthly mortgage payments eased in August as smaller loan sizes helped offset higher rates, although affordability continues to vary significantly across markets.https://t.co/PdtWg8gCic
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) September 25, 2026
Prepayment speeds drop to 17-month low
Refinance activity continued to lose momentum. The single-month mortality (SMM) rate — the standard measure of how quickly loans pay off ahead of schedule — fell 11 bps to 0.64% in August, marking a 17-month low and the fifth straight monthly decline, as mortgage rates trended higher.
Recent originations from 2023 to 2025 led the pullback, with SMM easing to 0.91% from a March 2026 peak of 2.32%.
The deceleration confirms how comprehensively elevated rates have suppressed refi activity, a dynamic that briefly eased in June when new FHA default data pointed to a potential turning point for mortgage stress before rates climbed again.
Bob Hart, President of Mortgage Technology at ICE, said the uneven picture underscores the value of early, data-driven borrower identification.
"While overall performance remains sound, the market isn't moving uniformly," Hart said.
"ICE is committed to giving lenders and servicers a clear view of the data, analytics and workflow tools they need to identify borrowers who may need assistance earlier, manage those cases more effectively and help keep people in their homes."
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