ICE data shows serious delinquencies up year over year despite stable headline numbers
US mortgage delinquencies edged higher in May 2026, but Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) says the bump reflects a calendar quirk rather than a genuine shift in borrower health, even as serious delinquencies and active foreclosure inventory continue their slow climb.
The national delinquency rate rose 15 basis points from April to 3.50%, a 4.5% month-over-month increase that ICE said is consistent with prior years when May ends on a Sunday, delaying scheduled mortgage payments into the following business day.
"While the headline increase in delinquencies may draw attention, the underlying performance picture is stable as delinquencies remain below January 2020 levels," said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at Intercontinental Exchange.
"The more important trend to watch remains the continued growth in serious delinquencies and active foreclosures, particularly among FHA loans."
Read more: Spring relief masks rising serious delinquencies
Behind the calendar noise, serious delinquencies keep climbing
Beneath the headline, the data tells a more nuanced story. Loans 90 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure held flat at 577,000 in May, a five-month low on a seasonal basis. But that count is 111,000 higher than a year ago, the largest annual increase since 2020.
Loans that are seriously delinquent or in active foreclosure grew by 185,000 year over year, also the biggest jump since the pandemic-era unemployment spike.
Active foreclosure inventory reached 280,000 loans in May, up 34% annually and the highest level in six years, though the overall foreclosure rate remains below pre-pandemic benchmarks.
Foreclosure starts totaled 33,000, down 9% from April but still 19% above year-ago levels.
This steady accumulation of late-stage stress is a pattern that Mirza Hodzic, managing director and founder of BlackWolf, a mortgage servicing consulting firm, flagged to Mortgage Professional America last month.
"If you dig into it a bit deeper and start looking at details, you start to see some pressure around late-stage delinquencies and foreclosure starts," Hodzic said.
Read more: Foreclosures climb in early 2026
FHA loans and the foreclosure pipeline brokers need to watch
The FHA loan population continues to draw the most scrutiny. Prior ICE Mortgage Monitor releases have shown FHA borrowers accounting for a disproportionately large share of seriously past-due mortgages, and brokers who placed first-time buyers in government-backed loans over the past two years should be monitoring cure activity closely.
Cure volumes fell 6% month over month in May, with FHA cures continuing to lag broader market performance, a signal brokers can use to identify clients who may benefit from an early loss mitigation conversation.
Prepayment speeds cooled as rates rose. The single-month mortality rate fell 15% from April to 0.79%, a four-month low, though it remains 8 basis points above year-ago levels.
State-level stress remains concentrated in the South: Mississippi led with a non-current rate of 8.43%, followed by Louisiana at 8.33% and Alabama at 6.19%. Idaho (2.04%), Washington (2.17%) and Montana (2.21%) recorded the lowest shares.
"Overall mortgage performance remains healthy, yet the level of serious delinquencies and active foreclosures highlights the importance of reaching borrowers early," said Bob Hart, president of mortgage technology at Intercontinental Exchange.
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