FHFA and Case-Shiller data show US home values barely budged in April as mortgage rates near 6.5% keep buyers on the sidelines
US home prices were essentially flat in April, with two of the industry's most closely watched indexes confirming that elevated mortgage rates continue to squeeze transaction volume even as outright price declines remain rare.
The Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) seasonally adjusted House Price Index slipped 0.1% from March, though prices were still up 2.0% from April 2025. March's previously reported 0.1% gain was revised upward to 0.2%.
Regionally, the FHFA found monthly changes ranging from a 0.8% decline in the Mountain division to a 1.0% gain in New England, while annual gains spanned 0.2% in the Pacific division to 4.4% in the East North Central division.
National index confirms a market losing ground to inflation
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index told a similar story.
"April's figures confirm that U.S. home prices remain essentially flat, with the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index up a scant 0.8% year over year, just above March's 0.7% pace," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, head of fixed income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
With inflation running at 3.8% in April, Godec noted that home values have now fallen in real terms for an eleventh consecutive month.
Godec pointed to wide regional dispersion as a defining feature of the current cycle, with Chicago's 6.5% annual gain standing nearly nine percentage points above Seattle's 2.3% decline.
That divergence echoes patterns in a Cotality report showing how US home prices held steady as the spring market found its footing, which similarly flagged a market searching for direction rather than momentum.
Godec also noted that seasonal strength is masking softer underlying conditions. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the national index rose 0.8% from March, but after seasonal adjustment it dipped 0.1%.
"The affordability pinch remains a key headwind," he said, pointing to 30-year mortgage rates climbing back to 6.3% in April after dipping below 6% earlier in the year.
"Home price growth remains constrained, with housing largely treading water in nominal terms and falling in real terms."
Brokers brace for rates to stay elevated through year-end
The common thread tying both reports together is borrowing costs. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has hovered near 6.5% for weeks.
Marty Green, principal at Polunsky Beitel Green, recently told Mortgage Professional America he expects little movement from here, saying rates would "kind of stay in the 6.25% to 6.5% range for the rest of the year."
For brokers, prices aren't collapsing, but with affordability stretched and rates unlikely to retreat meaningfully, transaction volume is likely to stay constrained well into the second half of 2026.
Stay updated with the freshest mortgage news. Get exclusive interviews, breaking news, and industry events in your inbox, and always be the first to know by subscribing to our FREE daily newsletter.
