Bank of England live: All the updates on decision day for the BoE

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That's a wrap!

That just about does it for today's live blog, but as always, make sure to follow Mortgage Introducer throughout the day for more reaction to the decision and what it means for the mortgage market. Thanks for following along!

12:50 p.m.: Bailey happy to hold rates, but others dissent

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said in today’s minutes that he would respond “promptly” if economic indicators suggested upward pressure on prices due to spiking energy costs – but for now, he’s comfortable with the decision to hold steady.

“I am content at the present time with holding, while accepting that risks to inflation and interest rates are on the upside, as reflected in the upward slope in the sterling yield curve, which appears to be accounted for more by risk premia than expected rates,” he said.

“I would respond promptly to any signals that an extended period of elevated energy prices could be leading to stronger possible second-round effects.”

But fellow decisionmakers Megan Greene and Huw Pill believed that a rate hike in today’s announcement would have made more sense. Both voted for an increase, with Pill arguing for “prompt but modest action” and Greene advocating a “risk management strategy” in the face of the current challenges.

Industry reaction: brokers and lenders welcome hold

The decision to hold Bank Rate steady drew a positive response from across the lending industry. Karen Rodrigues, director of sales at commercial mortgage lender and bridging specialist TAB, called it "absolutely the right call," adding that borrowers and brokers need stability and that rate uncertainty makes building lending momentum "very difficult." With the labour market having cooled and businesses already navigating a challenging environment, she said, "this is not the time to add further pressure."

Joshua Elash, founding director of specialist lender MT Finance, agreed, warning that a hike "could have put further strain on both lenders and borrowers." He pointed to the framework for a Middle East peace deal as a reason for cautious optimism, saying it should bring "some stability" to the mortgage market and ease tensions around energy costs.

12:10 p.m.: What it all means for mortgages

Here's MI's Rommel Lontayao on the Bank of England's latest decision, and its implications for the UK mortgage market: 

12:02 p.m.: Key takeaways from the Bank of England's announcement

The decision

• Bank Rate held at 3.75% — fourth consecutive hold
• Vote split 7–2, with two members pushing for a hike to 4.00%

On inflation

• CPI fell to 2.8% in May, 0.4 percentage points below the Bank's own forecast
• Despite the drop, the MPC expects inflation to climb back to just above 3.25% by the end of 2026 as energy price effects continue to feed through
• Household inflation expectations have risen sharply since the Middle East conflict began

On energy prices

• Brent crude has fallen to around $79 per barrel and UK wholesale gas to 100p per therm following news of a peace deal — but both remain well above pre-conflict levels
• The MPC warned that even a prompt resolution could take time to translate into lower energy prices, given the logistics of restoring supply

On the economy

• UK GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 2026 but underlying momentum is described as subdued
• The labour market is gradually loosening — unemployment fell to 4.9% but vacancies continue to decline
• Consumer and business sentiment remains weak

On wages

• Private sector wage growth came in at 2.9% — close to target-consistent levels
• Pay settlements are averaging 3.5% for 2026, most agreed before the conflict began

What happens next

• The MPC will watch closely for any signs of energy price rises becoming embedded in wages and prices
• A further hike remains firmly on the table if second-round effects materialise
• The two-year fixed mortgage rate is already around 80 basis points higher than before the conflict — the Bank views this tightening as doing work in the background

12:00 p.m.: BREAKING: Bank of England holds rates steady

The Bank of England's decision is in, and as expected the central bank has announced no change to its base rate. 

That means the rate is once again holding steady at 3.75% for now, although plenty of attention will focus on the Bank's language looking ahead and whether a hike or cut could be in store for the second half of 2026. 

11:56 a.m.: Latest BoE decision nearly here

We're just minutes away from the Bank of England's next announcement on interest rates, with the central bank set to deliver its latest decision amid a volatile economic environment marked by inflation fears, economic weakness, and lingering uncertainty over the outcome of the war in Iran. 

We'll have all the reaction from the mortgage industry about the decision. Stay tuned!

11:55 a.m.: Managing director taking calm approach to rate announcement

Speaking with James Murray, Mortgage 1st's Jon Stones said he's not losing sleep over the Bank of England's decision, and highlighted that irrespective of whether the central bank decides to cut, hold or hike, mortgage firms will still be busy in the days ahead. 

"A lot of it is factored into lenders' rates anyway," he said. "What it does do is drive customers to pick up the phone. Any change in rates – up or down – is always positive for us because it just makes the phone ring more."

11:30 a.m.: How the BoE’s rate stacks up against other global central banks

The Bank of England will become the latest in a string of global central banks to release a new decision on interest rates over the past week. Notably, the Bank of Canada opted to hold its policy rate unchanged last week, prolonging a string of rate holds, while the US Federal Reserve – under new chair Kevin Warsh – also announced no change in yesterday afternoon’s announcement.

Here’s how the rate picture looks in other global economies:

11:25 a.m.: Some still see a potential rate hike ahead

Looking down the line, financial markets see a chance of BoE hikes between now and the end of the year – and some brokers aren’t convinced a rate hold is a slam dunk this time around, either.

SPF Private Clients director Gareth Lowman told James Murray this week that he wasn’t ruling out a June hike, even if it’s “not looking likely.”

Neil Mulhearn, head of sales at Echo Finance, also sees a possible hike on the cards. “The European Central Bank has just increased its rate, and the Bank of England may be forced to follow suit,” he said.

But David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, sees a better outlook for mortgage borrowers, "further strengthened by the surprise stability in the rate of inflation and a proposed peace deal in Iran." He said the expectation that the BoE would hold its base rate was only strengthened by the latest data. 

11:15 a.m.: Explainer: How do BoE decisions impact mortgage rates?

It’s a question you’ve probably heard before from your clients – but just in case you’re wondering, here’s the rundown:

When the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raises or lowers its base rate, it directly influences the cost of borrowing across the UK economy, including mortgages. Tracker mortgages, which are pegged to the base rate, move almost immediately in response to any decision.

Standard variable rate (SVR) mortgages typically follow within weeks, at lenders' discretion. Fixed-rate mortgages are less directly tied to the base rate; instead, they are priced against swap rates, which reflect financial markets' expectations of where the base rate is heading over the coming years.

This means fixed rates can shift ahead of an MPC decision – or independently of one altogether – if market sentiment changes.

11:07 a.m. Recap of the Bank of England’s latest announcements

The UK’s central bank has yet to change interest rates in the year to date, holding steady in each of its 2026 decisions so far as it weighs up the impact higher oil prices and the Iran war are having on the national economy.

Here's a summary of how the central bank has acted in its latest announcements:

Sources: Bank of England MPC minutes (bankofengland.co.uk); House of Commons Library. 18 Jun 2026 decision pending — announcement at 12:00 GMT.

11:00 a.m.: Brokers weigh in ahead of BoE decision

Here’s our editor James Murray’s preview of today’s Bank of England decision, which features mortgage professionals giving a clear-cut sign of what they’re expecting.

Luther Yeates of Orton Financial doesn’t see any need for the BoE to hike rates, and is predicting no change in its announcement today. “If we increase the base rate, it won’t do anything. It will just make your life more difficult and my life more difficult,” he said, “but it won’t actually bring down the rate of inflation that we’re looking at.”

Meanwhile, Roxton Wealth executive financial and mortgage adviser Nouran Moustafa told MI she was “very confident” the central bank would keep rates unchanged this afternoon. The decision is set to arrive in just an hour.

10:50 a.m.: Here’s what to expect today

Bank of England days are always full of their own unique blend of intrigue and drama – but today’s decision is expected to be fairly clear-cut.

In a Reuters poll published last week, every economist surveyed said they expected the central bank to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% in its June decision. Those expectations have solidified after the latest inflation reading showed the UK’s consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged in May, holding steady at 2.8% in a better-than-anticipated reading.

It remains to be seen whether the Bank will enter rate-hiking mode between now and the end of the year – or if news of a tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran could stave off that threat.

For now, though, anything other than a rate hold in today’s decision would be a big surprise.

10:45 a.m.: We’re live!

Welcome along to today’s live blog on the Bank of England decision with Mortgage Introducer! Stay tuned as we provide all the updates from what’s sure to be one of the most closely watched days in the mortgage industry calendar for 2026.

The BoE will be announcing its next call on rates at 12 p.m. today, and we have you covered with all the latest updates and reaction from the mortgage industry.