MBA sheds light on how recession fears are impacting commercial and multifamily borrowing and lending
After a strong start to the year, commercial and multifamily originations are expected to fall by $158 billion in the second half of 2022.
The Mortgage Bankers Association downgraded its 2022 forecast for commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending – down 18% from $891 billion in 2021 to $733 billion in 2022.
“The rapid changes taking place across space, equity, and debt markets are having a significant effect on commercial and multifamily real estate transaction volumes,” said Jamie Woodwell, vice president for commercial real estate research at MBA. “We expect that the rise in rates, ongoing uncertainty about supply and demand balances among some property types, and concerns about the direction of the economy will suppress new loan originations in the second half of the year.”
Of the total figure, multifamily lending alone will plunge to $436 billion in 2022, a 10% decline from the previous year’s record of $487 billion. But MBA anticipates borrowing and lending to recover in 2023 to $872 billion in total commercial real estate lending and $454 billion in multifamily lending.
“Most commercial real estate market fundamentals remain strong, with significant increases in the incomes and values of many properties in recent years,” Woodwell said. “These factors are why MBA expects loan demand to begin to bounce back in 2023 and 2024.
JPMorgan Chase’s midyear outlook on the commercial and multifamily industry was also positive. Commercial property price appreciation rose at an 18.6% pace in May, while the annual growth rate for apartment prices reached an all-time high of 23.3%.
However, Woodwell warned that if a recession were to happen – which would most likely come in the first half of 2023, “commercial and multifamily borrowing and lending would likely be further constrained.”