Seller surplus creates more room for negotiations before 2027
A widening gap between home sellers and buyers could make the final months of 2026 more favorable for purchase activity, with new research identifying seven US metropolitan areas where price discounts typically peak in November or December.
According to Redfin's September housing market data, the US had 63% more sellers than buyers, the largest imbalance in records dating back to 2013. Miami had more than twice as many sellers as buyers, reflecting conditions that could strengthen buyers' negotiating power during the holiday slowdown.
A separate seasonal housing market analysis by Redfin and Home Economics found that early November typically offers the strongest discounts in Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Riverside, California; and Tampa, Florida.
In Detroit, Michigan, and the South Florida markets of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach, the most favorable period generally arrives in mid-December.
The analysis examined when discounts from original asking prices typically peak, including listing price reductions and negotiated discounts. Nationwide, discounts generally peak in early fall before leveling off or narrowing toward winter.
“There’s a tradeoff to shopping for a home late in the year: Buyers may have fewer fresh listings to choose from, but they also face less competition, and many sellers are ready to make a deal,” Redfin senior economist Asad Khan said.
“A seller who has been waiting months for an offer may be more willing to negotiate on price or other costs than they were in the spring. Buyers shouldn’t purchase a home just because the calendar says it’s a good time for deals, but those who find the right home may have room to negotiate.”
The advantage varies by market. Miami, Tampa, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Riverside, and Detroit are classified as buyer's markets, where seasonal discounts could reinforce already favorable negotiating conditions.
Milwaukee is an exception. It remains one of only five seller's markets nationally, making its early November discount window potentially more significant for buyers facing relatively limited negotiating power.
Regional factors also influence when discounts emerge. In Florida, demand from retirees and seasonal residents typically increases after the new year, giving local buyers an opportunity to negotiate before competition intensifies.
“Local buyers have a good shot at getting a deal in November, mainly because it’s just before the snowbirds arrive. House hunters have a window of opportunity to negotiate on listings that have been lingering on the market since summer: Sellers want to close a deal before the new year, and there’s often not much competition from out-of-towners yet,” Redfin Premier agent Todd Edwards said.
In Detroit and Milwaukee, colder weather shortens the selling season, with some sellers continuing to market properties into late fall to complete transactions before winter.
However, stronger discounts come with a tradeoff. The research found that the periods offering the greatest savings generally occur months after new listings peak, leaving buyers with fewer properties to choose from.
In Milwaukee, new listings typically peak in mid-May, compared with the early November discount window. Detroit's new listings peak in early August, while its strongest discounts arrive in mid-December.
For lenders, these seasonal patterns may provide an opportunity to reconnect with purchase prospects who previously deferred buying because of home prices. However, potential savings from negotiated discounts must still be weighed against prevailing mortgage rates, financing costs, and available inventory.
