Fed rate hike in the offing?

The Federal Bank held its target for the federal funds rate at 1-11/4 this week, but one economist is predicting a rate hike sooner than later

Fed rate hike in the offing?
The Federal Bank held its target for the federal funds rate at 1-11/4 this week, but one economist is predicting a rate hike sooner than later.

“Financial markets are interpreting the Fed's statement as signaling that a December rate hike is on track, as the Fed acknowledged that: the economy is strong despite the hurricanes, the labour market has continued to strengthen, and it expects inflation to rise gradually,” Economist Dr. Sherry Cooper said in a research note following the Fed’s decision. “A December interest rate increase would be the third such move this year. The Fed has increased interest rates four times since late 2015, all of which happened at meetings that were accompanied by a press conference, which occurs at alternating meetings. There will be a press conference in December.”

In a statement after its latest policy meeting ended Wednesday, the Fed left its benchmark rate in a low range of 1 per cent to 1.25 per cent. With the economy on solid footing, the Fed is expected to raise rates for the third time this year when it next meets in December.

Overall, the Fed's statement suggested a bright economic outlook, with steady if unspectacular growth and a healthy job market. It noted that a loss of U.S. jobs in September was directly related to disruptions from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. Economists have projected that on Friday the government will report a job gain of 310,000 for October _ a dramatic rebound.

It addition, the Fed said that a rise in gasoline prices after the hurricanes would likely prove temporary and that overall price increases remain generally soft. It reiterated its expectation that prices will resume picking up toward its 2 per cent inflation target.

The central bank remains confident, the statement said, that the strength of the job market and the overall economy will justify further gradual increases in interest rates.

``The uncertainty about the economic impact of hurricanes has subsided, and the Fed noted the strengthening economy by saying it is expanding at a 'solid rate,' said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate. ''If that's not a prerequisite for an interest rate hike next month, I don't know what is.``

President Donald Trump has said he will announce on Thursday his choice to lead the Fed beginning in February. Jerome Powell, a Fed board member, is assumed to be the top contender.

``I think you will be extremely impressed by this person,'' Trump said Wednesday.

Trump's announcement will be scrutinized for what it might mean for the direction of interest rates, and perhaps for the economy. In selecting Powell, Trump would be deciding against offering a second term to Yellen, who has drawn wide approval for her performance as chair. The first woman to lead the Fed, Yellen would also be the first leader of the central bank in decades not to be offered a second term after serving a full first term.

Powell has built a reputation as a centrist policymaker whose stance on interest rate increases would likely deviate little from Yellen's cautious approach. Powell would, though, be expected to be marginally more favourable toward easing some of the stricter financial rules that were enacted after the 2008 financial crisis. Trump has complained that those rules have been too restrictive.

In its statement Wednesday, the Fed noted the chronic problem of ultra-low inflation. The problem with too-low inflation is that it can slow the economy by causing consumers to delay purchases if they think they can buy a product or service for a lower price later.

And so far this year, inflation has actually been slowing. The trend that has raised doubts about whether, as the Fed has suggested, lower-than-optimal inflation reflects mainly temporary factors, such as a price war among cellphone service providers, or rather something more fundamental.

Last week, the government estimated that they economy grew at a solid 3 per cent annual rate in the July-September quarter despite severe damage from two hurricanes. The economy has now posted two straight quarters of at least 3 per cent annual growth _ the strongest two-quarter stretch in three years. And the unemployment rate has reached a 16-year low of 4.2 per cent.

Those factors, along with a stock market setting record highs, are thought to have put the Fed on a path to raise rates modestly later this year and thereby avoid having to tighten credit more aggressively later to prevent high inflation _ something that would risk derailing the economy.

In its statement, the Fed noted that it's proceeding with a program to shrink its bond portfolio _ a move that could mean higher long-term rates over time.

Wednesday's policy decision was approved 9-0, with Randal Quarles, Trump's first nominee for the board, taking part in his first interest-rate-setting meeting.

If Trump does announce that Powell will succeed Yellen, most analysts expect the Fed's pace of rate hikes beginning next year to remain gradual, with perhaps some possibility of a slight acceleration.

Yellen, who was selected as Fed chair by President Barack Obama, has been an outspoken advocate for the stricter regulations that took effect in 2010 to prevent another financial crisis. If Powell, as Fed chair, proves more inclined to ease some of those regulations, he would have an ally on the board in Quarles, who has become the Fed's first vice chairman for supervision _ a position from which he can lead the effort to loosen regulations.

The seven-member board has three other vacancies, thereby providing Trump with additional ways to put his imprint on the central bank.

With a file from the Associated Press