Zillow's spring data shows a jump in buyer engagement, but sales barely followed
The spring homebuying season attracted more engaged buyers than the market had seen in years, yet sales told a far more modest story, according to new data from Zillow.
A September Zillow analysis found that engaged home shoppers — defined as Zillow users who saved or shared a for-sale listing, signaling real intent beyond casual browsing — reached 4.8 per listing nationally during the second quarter, a 21% jump year over year.
Despite that surge in interest, existing-home sales climbed just 4.5% over the same period.
With inventory also running higher than a year prior, the divergence signals a substantial pool of buyers on the sidelines: ready to move, but not yet able to close.
Heading into Q2, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate held at or below 6.5%, offering a brief window of relative affordability.
Zillow now expects a weaker-than-anticipated close to 2026 as borrowing costs have since climbed and economic uncertainty has returned. Most forecasters expected the 30-year fixed to hold in the low-to-mid 6% range, with gradual recovery, not a sudden rebound.
"This past spring gave us a window into what demand looks like when conditions are even modestly more favorable," said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow.
"With borrowing costs moving back up and economic uncertainty weighing on household decisions, that gap between intent and action has only grown. There is a lot of pent-up demand sitting on the sidelines, and the right conditions could open the floodgates."
Where competition is fiercest – and where brokers need to move fast
The shopper-to-listing ratio varies sharply by region. In the Northeast, chronic underbuilding has kept inventory under sustained pressure.
Buffalo, New York led all major metro areas with 10.5 engaged shoppers per listing in spring, followed by Providence, Rhode Island (9.5), Hartford, Connecticut (8.5), San Francisco, California (7.6), and Cleveland, Ohio (7.3).
Clients in these markets face compressed timelines and limited negotiating leverage — brokers here need to be positioning buyers well before a listing goes live.
The Sun Belt presents a markedly different picture. A sustained wave of new construction has given buyers considerably more options, and the pressure has shifted to sellers.
Houston, Texas recorded just 2.2 engaged shoppers per listing, the lowest of any major metro, followed by Miami, Florida (2.4) and San Antonio, Texas (2.9).
The luxury divide that's reshaping buyer profiles
Zillow's data also exposes a widening split along price lines. Luxury listings — defined as homes in the top 5% of regional value — attracted a median of eight engaged shoppers per listing last spring. That's nearly three times the 2.7 recorded for entry-level homes in the 5th-to-35th percentile of regional values.
Engagement growth for luxury properties also outpaced the lower end by a wide margin: 25.7% year over year compared to just 8.6% for bottom-tier listings.
The same K-shaped dynamic held by home size. Properties with four or more bedrooms drew 6.6 engaged shoppers per listing, nearly double the 3.5 recorded for two-bedroom homes.
For brokers, the data maps clearly where demand is concentrated and what it would take to convert it. The buyers are present and watching. The market is simply waiting for conditions to give them a reason to act.
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