Strong improvement for delinquencies but Florence impact to come

Spike ahead just as impact of previous hurricanes fades

Strong improvement for delinquencies but Florence impact to come

Mortgage delinquencies improved over the July-August period but there will be worse to come as the impact of Hurricane Florence is felt.

The summer improvement came as hurricane-related delinquencies from 2017 continued to decline. The overall 5.7% decline over the past two months marked the strongest July-August improvement since before 2000 and the lowest rate in 12 years.

The figures from Black Knight’s ‘first look’ at August 2018 month-end mortgage performance stats also reveal that foreclosure starts eased in August and are now more than 12% below last year’s level.

However, while the number of 2017 hurricane-related delinquencies declined to 25,100 in the US mainland, there are 391,000 homes with a mortgage inside Hurricane Florence’s evacuation area including around 283,000 in the 18 North Carolina counties FEMA-declared disaster areas.

Black Knight warns that if the per-capita impacts of hurricanes Irma and Harvey are repeated for those affected by Florence, then thousands of homeowners with mortgages could fall behind with their payments.

The details
The total US loan delinquency rate (loans 30+ days past due but not in foreclosure) in 3.52%, down 2.43% month-over-month and down 10.39% year-over-year.

There were 48,000 foreclosure starts, down 0.62% month-over-month and down 12.25% year-over-year.

The monthly prepayment rate was 0.92%, up 1.92% month-over-month and up 18.66% year-over-year.

The number of properties 30 days or more past due but not in foreclosure was 1,818,000, down 43,000 month-over-month and down 185,000 year-over-year.

The number of properties 90 days or more past due but not in foreclosure was 510,000, down 18,000 month-over-month and down 47,000 year-over-year.

There were 280,000 properties in the foreclosure pre-sale inventory, down 13,000 month-over-month and down 105,000 year-over-year.