Census Bureau data show slack in the rental market isn't picking up while ownership remains flat, giving brokers a pitch to would-be first-time buyers
America’s rental market loosened further this summer, giving mortgage brokers a stronger case to put to tenants weighing a first purchase, even as the national homeownership rate barely moved.
The rental vacancy rate rose to 7.6% in the third quarter of 2026, up from 7.1% a year earlier and 7.3% in the second quarter, the US Census Bureau reported.
The homeownership rate stood at 65.5%, which the bureau said was statistically unchanged from 65.3% a year ago and 65.0% last quarter.
The homeowner vacancy rate, the share of owner housing stock sitting empty and for sale, held at 1.2%.
About 3.87 million year-round units were vacant and listed for rent, roughly 317,000 more than a year earlier. Those units carried a median asking rent of $1,541, while vacant homes for sale had a median asking price of $353,600.
| Quarter (2026) | Rental vacancy rate | Homeowner vacancy rate |
|---|---|---|
| First quarter | 7.3% | 1.1% |
| Second quarter | 7.3% | 1.2% |
| Third quarter | 7.6% | 1.2% |
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, Oct. 28, 2026. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Where rental vacancies are rising fastest
The slack is concentrated in principal cities, where rental vacancies reached 8.8%, against 6.5% in the suburbs.
The South posted the highest regional rate at 9.2%, while the Northeast and West both recorded year-over-year increases, to 6.2% and 6.7%, respectively.
The bureau cautioned that metropolitan boundaries changed between the two periods, which complicates some annual comparisons.
Easing rents have already been chipping away at the narrowing monthly gap between renting and buying a starter home.
“As buying costs have eased in many markets, renters who are intentional about saving have a real opportunity to build toward a down payment faster than they might think,” Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said in April.
Rising mortgage rates are on track to overwhelm the US housing shortage in 2027, suppressing both home sales and new construction, according to Goldman Sachs Research. https://t.co/K98uS5esUX
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) November 2, 2026
Homeownership slips for buyers aged 35 to 44
Beneath the flat headline figure, the age data diverged. Ownership among householders 65 and older climbed to 79.1% from 77.9%, while the rate for those aged 35 to 44 fell to 60.1% from 61.1%.
The under-35 rate of 36.6% was statistically unchanged, and ownership among households earning below the median family income rose to 52.6% from 51.8%.
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Data & Analytics, has argued that the entry-level barrier is cost rather than rate lock-in.
“First-time buyers have no low-rate mortgage to surrender, indeed their challenge is whether they can afford to enter the market at all,” she wrote in First American’s analysis of first-time and repeat buyer loan volumes.
Brokers have been making the case for treating a first home as a stepping stone.
“I think part of it, too, is realistic expectations,” Matt Gouge, a mortgage broker and mortgage consultant at Answer Home Loans, told Mortgage Professional America in January.
“As a first-time homebuyer, you shouldn’t expect four bedrooms, three baths, 2,800 square feet. A starter home is a starter home. There have been a lot of people who have had to just come to terms with the realization that, ‘I’m going to buy less house than maybe I want or I dreamed of.’ But this is the first house. This is a stepping stone.”
The Census Bureau will publish fourth-quarter figures on Feb. 2, 2027.
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