Pending sales fall to a three-month low as the 30-year rate climbs to a year-high 6.85%
United States pending home sales fell to their lowest level since early April during the four weeks ending July 26.
The 1.7% week-over-week drop coincided with the daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbing to 6.85%, the highest reading in more than a year, according to Redfin data covering 900+ metro areas.
Mortgage-purchase applications fell a further 4% for the week ending July 29, per the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), underscoring how rising borrowing costs are prompting buyers to step back.
Rates remain under pressure from persistent inflation and volatile oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The weekly average 30-year fixed rate stood at 6.58% for the week ending July 23, the highest in 11 months, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
Regional data reveals sharp divergence
Metro-level data from Redfin reveals a market split sharply along geographic lines. Pending home sales posting their steepest monthly drop of 2026 masked wide variation: West Palm Beach, FL, led gains at 15.4% year-over-year, while Houston and Seattle posted the sharpest declines at -15.4% and -13.9% respectively.
On the new listings side, Fort Worth, TX, fell 12.3% and Dallas -11.4%, while St. Louis gained 13.5%.
| Metro | Year-over-year change | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| West Palm Beach, FL | +15.4% | ▲ |
| Boston, MA | +9.4% | ▲ |
| Pittsburgh, PA | +8.5% | ▲ |
| Cincinnati, OH | +8.2% | ▲ |
| Sacramento, CA | +5.9% | ▲ |
| San Diego, CA | -7.1% | ▼ |
| Denver, CO | -7.7% | ▼ |
| Phoenix, AZ | -12.5% | ▼ |
| Seattle, WA | -13.9% | ▼ |
| Houston, TX | -15.4% | ▼ |
Sellers outnumber buyers, but buyers are gaining leverage
Despite the demand pullback, supply conditions are tilting in buyers' favor. Active listings nationally reached 1,490,916 for the period, up 0.7% year-over-year per Redfin, while the median monthly mortgage payment eased to $2,575, its lowest level in three months, as sellers' median asking prices fell to their lowest point in a year.
Months of supply held at 3.6, still below the 4-to-5-month range considered a balanced market, but the gap between sellers and active buyers is widening.
"It's important for house hunters to remember that while mortgage rates were much lower during the pandemic, every listing was ultra-competitive; buyers often had to pay tens of thousands of dollars over the asking price to win a home," said Bonnie Phillips, a Redfin Premier agent in Cleveland, Ohio.
"Rates are higher now, but bidding wars are unlikely and buyers are often able to negotiate prices down and get concessions from sellers. Today's housing market rewards patience over panic: If you can afford to buy, focus on finding a home you love and negotiating a good deal rather than trying to perfectly time mortgage rates."
Touring activity remains positive but losing momentum. Home listing tours are up 15% since the start of 2026, according to ShowingTime, compared with a 31% gain recorded at the same point in 2025.
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