Which metro areas top May 2026 contract cancellation rankings?
One in five home-purchase agreements fell through in Atlanta, Georgia, in May 2026. That's the highest cancellation rate among the 50 most-populous US metros, according to new data from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.
The findings mark the latest signal that pandemic-era Sun Belt hotspots have swung sharply in buyers' favor, creating real challenges for mortgage professionals working to close deals across the region.
Nationally, 13.6% of home-sale agreements fell through in May, based on Redfin's analysis of seasonally adjusted MLS pending-sales data. That share has held flat for four consecutive months, a sign that the market has reached a fragile equilibrium rather than continuing to deteriorate.
Read more: Home purchase cancellations plateau as buyer demand picks up in April
Sun Belt metros see widest buyer surpluses
The data is starkest across the South and Texas. Atlanta posted a cancellation rate of 18.8% in May, followed by Fort Worth, TX (18.1%), Jacksonville, FL (17.9%), San Antonio, TX (17.8%), and Orlando, FL (17.7%).
Texas accounted for four of the 10 metros with the highest fallout rates; Florida accounted for three.
The driver is supply imbalance. According to Redfin, Atlanta carries 70% more home sellers than buyers.
In Fort Worth, the surplus is 61%; in Jacksonville, 74%. In San Antonio and Houston, sellers outnumber buyers by more than two to one.
"Sellers need to pay attention and price realistically, because the market is leaning toward buyers," said Connie Durnal, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas.
"I recently worked with smart sellers who knew how to get their home under contract and get the deal done: They had paid $400,000 for the home, but they listed at $390,000 because that's where the market was. They were willing to consider offers under the list price and negotiate with buyers, too."
The shift mirrors broader pricing patterns across the region. Stephen Kates, CFP and financial analyst at Bankrate, noted that "sellers can no longer expect standard bidding wars or demand wild asking prices," a shift from the pandemic cycle that continues to reshape closing dynamics in formerly red-hot markets.
San Francisco and Northeast markets defy the trend
Cancellations are least common where inventory is tightest. San Francisco recorded a 3.9% cancellation rate in May, the lowest in the country, driven largely by AI-sector demand.
Nassau County, NY (3.9%), New York City (6.7%), and San Jose, CA (7.1%) also posted low rates, markets where buyers are motivated to hold deals together because homes remain scarce.
On the West Coast, however, fallout is rising. Portland, OR, saw cancellations climb from 14.3% to 16.3% month over month, and Oakland, CA jumped from 8.2% to 10.2%.
With Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey showing the 30-year fixed rate above 6% for nearly four full years, buyers retain every structural incentive to walk if a better deal appears.
For lenders and originators with Sun Belt exposure, realistic seller pricing and faster renegotiation protocols may be the most reliable hedge against growing fallout risk.
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