Redfin’s September home price report maps a geographic divide
The US housing market is running parallel tracks heading into the final stretch of 2026.
In some cities, buyers are competing for homes in markets where relative affordability has become the primary draw. In others, sellers are discovering that significant equity is not the same as pricing power, and some are delisting rather than accept a below-ask offer.
September home prices nationally rose 0.25% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis, edging above August’s 0.21%, as annual price growth reached 3.8%, the fastest pace since June 2025, according to the Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI).
The RHPI tracks repeat-sales pricing for single-family homes across the three months ending September 30.
Pennsylvania metros lead September home price gains
Of the 50 most populous US metros tracked in the RHPI, prices rose in 34 in September.
Philadelphia posted the steepest monthly increase at 1.9%, with Pittsburgh and Miami both gaining 1.3%. Chicago and San Francisco each added 1%.
Redfin attributed the Pennsylvania and Midwest performance to relative affordability. Buyers are accessing competitively priced homes increasingly scarce on the coasts, sustaining demand where mortgage-rate sensitivity has stifled it elsewhere.
San Francisco’s gains reflect a different dynamic. Concentrated artificial intelligence wealth in the Bay Area continues to push prices higher, largely independent of broader mortgage conditions.
On a year-over-year basis, San Francisco leads all major metros at 14% price growth in September.
West Palm Beach, FL followed at 10.4%, Chicago at 10.3%, Miami at 8.2%, and Philadelphia at 7.6%.
Top 5 monthly gainers
Sep 2026 MoM| Metro | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 1PhiladelphiaPA | +1.9% | +7.6% |
| 2PittsburghPA | +1.3% | — |
| 2MiamiFL | +1.3% | +8.2% |
| 4ChicagoIL | +1.0% | +10.3% |
| 4San FranciscoCA | +1.0% | +14.0% |
Top 5 monthly decliners
Sep 2026 MoM| Metro | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| 1Fort WorthTX | −0.9% | — |
| 2New BrunswickNJ | −0.6% | — |
| 3DallasTX | −0.4% | −1.5% |
| 3SeattleWA | −0.4% | −0.2% |
| 3Nassau CountyNY | −0.4% | — |
Source: Redfin Home Price Index (RHPI), September 2026. Data covers three months ending Sept. 30, 2026, on a seasonally adjusted basis. MoM = month-over-month change. YoY = year-over-year change. "—" indicates metro was not among top or bottom five annual performers in the source report. Ranks 2 and 4 (gainers) and rank 3 (decliners) reflect tied values.
Texas buyer’s markets drag on home prices
Home prices declined in 16 of the 50 largest metros in September.
Fort Worth recorded the sharpest monthly drop at -0.9%, followed by New Brunswick, NJ at -0.6%. Dallas, Seattle, and Nassau County, NY each fell 0.4%.
Texas is at the center of the national correction. San Antonio posted the largest annual price decline at -2.1%, ahead of Dallas (-1.5%), Austin (-0.2%), and Houston (-0.1%).
Seattle was the only non-Texas metro to register a year-over-year loss at -0.2%.
Elevated inventory is the root cause. Texas’s supply overhang gives buyers room to negotiate or walk, forcing some sellers to reduce asking prices to close deals.
Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, told Mortgage Professional America earlier this year: “I feel that 2026 has gotten off to a better start than we’ve seen, and the pace is better than what we’ve seen in the past few months. But obviously, where interest rates go will have a lot to do with where the real estate market goes.”
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