Climate risk and soaring insurance costs are driving Americans away from flood-prone markets
The flight from flood-prone real estate accelerated sharply in 2025. High-risk U.S. counties lost 63,357 more residents than they gained, nearly double the net outflow of 34,099 in 2024, according to a new analysis from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.
The findings draw on U.S. Census Bureau domestic migration data and climate-risk scores from First Street, tracking counties where between 23.7% and 99.1% of homes carry elevated flood risk.
Miami and Houston lead the outflows
Miami-Dade County posted the largest net outflow of any high-flood-risk county in the analysis, shedding 72,254 more residents than it gained, the largest such figure on record for the county.
Harris County, Texas, which includes Houston, ranked second with a net outflow of 43,377. Four of the 10 hardest-hit counties are in Florida, including Pinellas, Collier, and Monroe, in addition to Miami-Dade.
Kyle Kleinman, a Redfin agent in Miami, attributed much of the buyer hesitation to insurance and financing costs. "If you don't live here and you're thinking of moving here, hurricane risk is top of mind," Kleinman said.
"I've worked with a lot of house hunters who were searching in Miami from out of town, then they completely backed out. Most of them realized it's much more expensive to live here than they thought because of flood risk and sky-high insurance premiums. Coupled with high mortgage rates, the expense is through the roof."
Those pressures are well-documented across the industry. Average property insurance for mortgaged single-family homes reached nearly $2,370 in 2025, up 11.3% year-over-year, per ICE Mortgage Monitor data.
A Pew Research Center survey published in May found that 71% of homeowners say the cost of their home insurance has gone up over the last few years, including 42% who say it has gone up a lot.
Low-risk counties gain as demand shifts
Despite the headline outflows, 182 of the 310 high-flood-risk counties analyzed by Redfin still posted net inflows. Most are in more affordable markets: all 10 counties with the largest inflows carry median list prices below $500,000, compared to $1 million or more in several of the areas losing the most residents.
"Climate risk is becoming a more important factor when Americans weigh the costs and benefits of living in a certain place," said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist.
"Repeated disruptions and damage from extreme weather are making it more expensive — and less predictable — to own homes and live in the most flood-prone parts of the country."
A Redfin survey conducted by Ipsos in May 2026 found that 16% of Americans planning to move cited concern about natural disasters as a driver, the fourth most common reason among 29 options. Low-flood-risk counties, meanwhile, gained 69,857 net residents in 2025, the strongest increase since 2018.
As the share of American homes facing severe climate threats continues to expand, those migration patterns will reshape origination volumes across the country's most exposed markets.
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