Reaction from new Fed chair Kevin Warsh and from across the mortgage industry
NOTE: This is a live blog that will be updated frequently. Refresh often for the latest updates.
Dot plot: A hawkish turn for the Fed
2:10 p.m. ET
While we didn’t get a breakdown of how the committee voted, we did get an updated dot plot which favors one rate hike in 2026.
Breaking: Fed announces rate decision
2:00 p.m. ET
The Federal Reserve has officially announced its rate decision. The Fed has announced it will keep rates steady for the fourth straight meeting to open the year.
The FOMC announced it was keeping its funds rate steady once again, keeping rates between 3.50% and 3.75%.
Stay tuned for broker reaction in the next 30 minutes, followed by comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
Here is the link to the YouTube video where Warsh's comments will air in 30 minutes.
North of the border: Hold last week, but cuts could come
1:40 p.m. ET
Unlike in recent meetings, the Bank of Canada held its rate decision meeting a week before the Federal Reserve. However, like the Fed is expected to do in 20 minutes, it held rates once again.
The Bank of Canada held its trendsetting interest rate at 2.25%, keeping that number steady for the fifth consecutive meeting.
Governor Tiff Macklem said if there ends up being a trade war with the US because of the soon-expiring USMCA, the Bank of Canada may have to consider rate cuts to help the country absorb some of the effects.
"If the United States imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada, we may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth," Macklem said.
However, if energy prices remain high, a rate hike isn’t out of the question either.
"Alternatively, if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation, monetary policy will have more work to do – there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate," Macklem said.
The Bank of Canada will announce its next rate decision on July 15, two weeks before the next Fed decision on July 29.
Keep an eye on: 10-year Treasury and forward guidance
1:30 p.m. ET
Here are two things that are worth keeping an eye on today:
The first is what the 10-year Treasury yields do in the aftermath of both the rate decision and Kevin Warsh’s comments. As of right now, the 10-year is largely flat for the day.
The 30-year mortgage rate is closely tied to the 10-year Treasury, so we’ll keep an eye on which way it moves, if it moves at all, later today.
The second is forward guidance. There have been rumblings that Warsh may not participate in the dot plot, as he has mentioned reducing forward guidance. Getting away from forward guidance allows the Fed to avoid the perception of locking itself into future rate decisions if the data doesn’t back up that path.
While we’re waiting to see what happens, here’s a chart of the Fed funds rate since 2010. This reflects the actual overnight funds rate rather than the range that the central bank operates within.
Comparing US rates to the rest of the world
1:20 p.m. EDT
Here is a chart and an interactive map showing how the US Federal Funds rate compares to central bank rates around the world:
| Country | Central Bank Rate |
|---|---|
| Switzerland | 0.00% |
| Singapore | 0.77% |
| Japan | 1.00% |
| Canada | 2.25% |
| Eurozone | 2.40% |
| South Korea | 2.50% |
| China | 3.00% |
| United States | 3.50% – 3.75% |
| United Kingdom | 3.75% |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.25% |
| Australia | 4.35% |
| India | 5.25% |
| Indonesia | 5.50% |
| Mexico | 6.50% |
| South Africa | 7.00% |
| Brazil | 14.50% |
| Russia | 14.50% |
| Argentina | 29.00% |
| Türkiye | 37.00% |
Fed Preview: A hike ‘not unthinkable’
1:00 p.m. EDT
This is likely not what Kevin Warsh or the White House were hoping would be the circumstances when Jerome Powell’s term as chair came to an end.
Nevertheless, the current inflation environment is the hand the new Fed chair has been dealt, which will make a rate cut in the short term difficult.
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, believes a hold is in the cards.
"My baseline expectation is a hold," Kushi told Mortgage Professional America. "Inflation has moved higher, but much of the recent acceleration has been driven by energy prices, while the labor market is showing signs of stabilizing. The Fed doesn't need to rush into rate cuts, but it also doesn't have enough evidence yet to justify a hike.
“The key question is whether the recent inflation shock proves temporary or begins to spill over into broader prices and inflation expectations. Until that becomes clearer, holding is the path of least regret."
The question will be what happens to inflation next and how that impacts Warsh’s road forward. There is hope that a ceasefire in the Middle East could bring energy prices back down, which could allow the central bank to consider rate cuts again in the future.
However, until there is a reduction in inflation, cuts are harder to justify. In fact, Kushi said a rate hike is no longer off the table.
"A rate hike is not inevitable, but it's no longer unthinkable," she said. "Earlier this year, the market's base case was that the Fed would be cutting rates. Today, the conversation has shifted toward how long rates may need to remain elevated and whether inflation risks could eventually require a different policy response."
As for what Kushi is looking to hear from Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET today, she wants to hear what framework he will put in place that will differ from what Powell was doing.
"Beyond the policy decision itself, I'll be paying close attention to the framework Chairman Warsh uses to interpret the data," she said. "Every Fed chair inherits inflation, labor market, and growth data. What matters is how they think about uncertainty, risk management, and the tradeoffs within the dual mandate.
"I'll be listening for signals about his reaction function. The first meeting is often about establishing a framework for how policy decisions will be made going forward."
Welcome to the live blog!
12:45 p.m. EDT
Welcome to our fourth live blog of 2026 at Mortgage Professional America. Today, we are covering the Federal Reserve’s fourth rate announcement of the year.
Today marks the first rate decision announced with Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. He has been tasked by the White House to try to cut rates to lower borrowing costs, but he walks into a difficult situation. Members of the Fed have been hyper-focused on high inflation, which makes the chances of a rate cut unlikely.
CME FedWatch took any chance of a cut off the board leading up to the meeting, with only 0.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.
Today likely isn’t about the rate decision, but what we find out about how Warsh is going to run the central bank in contrast to his predecessor, Jerome Powell, who remains on the board.
This is going to be a fascinating day. We’ll break everything down leading up to the 2 p.m. rate decision announcement. Then we’ll have broker and economist reaction afterwards, followed by Warsh’s comments at 2:30 p.m. Refresh often for the latest news!
