Fed live blog: All the latest from the central bank’s July decision

NOTE: This is a live blog that will be updated frequently. Refresh often for the latest updates.

North of the border: Hold two weeks ago, with eyes on Iran

1:40 p.m. ET

The Bank of Canada continued its path with another rate hold on July 16, but all eyes remain on the conflict in the Middle East and what it is doing to oil prices.

The central bank kept its trendsetting interest rate at 2.25%, extending a streak that started last December and has stretched through all of 2026 to date.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem didn’t offer much on the future rate path for the central bank, but did say a hike might be necessary if oil prices remain high.

“Clearly, if oil prices go higher, they stay higher,” he said. “The likelihood that that gets passed on broadens risks. There’s a progression from broadening to persistence. And yes, if that happens, we may well need to raise interest rates. That’s not our base case, but it is a serious risk.”

Bank of Montreal (BMO) chief economist Doug Porter told our Fergal McAlinden that the central bank’s language suggested it was aware of the possible risks of elevated energy costs.

“I’ve been very much of the view that the Bank’s not going to raise rates, that they’re going to decide they don’t have to,” Porter told Canadian Mortgage Professional. “The longer these oil prices stay at these levels, the less confident I am in that call. It does increase the risk that the Bank at one point might feel that they have to raise interest rates.”

The next decision will be September 2, two weeks before the Federal Reserve meets for its September meeting.

Keep an eye on: Is there dissent this time?

1:30 p.m. ET

At Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, the Fed had what he termed a good ‘family fight.’ However, at the end, the central bank’s decision to hold rates was unanimous.

Since then, many Fed governors have made it clear that they’re worried about growing inflation, and the question remains whether the family fight will spill out into the public after today’s meeting.

Will the Fed remain unanimous in its decision this time, or will we see Fed members vote differently than the majority? We will find out when the decision is announced at 2 p.m. ET.

While we’re waiting to see what happens, here’s a chart of the Fed funds rate since 2010. This reflects the actual overnight funds rate rather than the range that the central bank operates within.

Comparing US rates to the rest of the world

1:20 p.m. EDT

Here is a chart and an interactive map showing how the US Federal Funds rate compares to central bank rates around the world:

Veteran broker: Fed rate hike won’t fix oil price problem

1:10 p.m. EDT

Amir Nurani, broker-owner of Left Coast Leaders in San Diego, California, has worked through challenging markets before. The current one provides its own challenges.

He believes much of what is driving mortgage rates right now is elevated energy costs due to the conflict in Iran, and until that is resolved, rate volatility will likely remain.

It also means he doesn’t think that Kevin Warsh and the Fed have the right levers to be able to bring mortgage rates down due to the current market situation.

"Raising rates into that environment isn't necessarily an adequate strategy because just because you raise rates doesn't mean you calm down the oil market," Nurani told Mortgage Professional America. "What was happening before with inflation is we had too much free cash flowing around the country and the consumer was invigorated. You raise rates to slow down the consumer, but when you raise rates, you don't slow down the price of oil."

He believes that if there is a more permanent resolution in the Middle East, energy prices will retreat and mortgage rates will follow.

"Even though the Fed hasn't moved interest rates at all, you notice mortgage prices increasing," he said. "The reason why mortgage rates are going up is because the long bonds are reacting to the inflationary environment and the uncertainty. When the war calms down, you will see the 10-year treasury fall, and when that falls, mortgage rates will come down."

Fed Preview: Rate hike ‘not completely off the table’

1:00 p.m. EDT

Sam Williamson, senior economist at First American, expects the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady at today’s meeting. However, he’s not convinced that a rate hike is out of the question.

"A hold remains the most likely outcome at the July meeting, but a hike is not completely off the table," Williamson told Mortgage Professional America. "Rising inflation expectations, renewed energy pressures and a more hawkish Fed have made that risk harder to ignore. If the Fed holds, the question becomes how much the balance of risks has shifted toward fighting inflation, a signal that could raise the odds of rate hikes later this year."

Like so many, Williamson has his eyes focused on the Middle East. The impact of the Iran conflict on oil prices, and therefore inflation, has caused bond yields to jump. This has driven the 30-year mortgage rate into the high 6s. If energy prices stay higher for longer, the path for the Fed may become more difficult.

"A sustained energy shock would complicate the Fed's dual mandate by keeping pressure on inflation, while weakening household purchasing power and posing downside risks to growth," he said. "With the labor market still stable, inflation is likely to remain the Fed's more immediate concern, but policymakers would probably need definitive evidence that higher energy costs were starting to spread into broader prices before raising rates."

However, Williamson did offer a silver lining that despite the current headwinds, there are opportunities for the mortgage market to continue moving forward.

"While higher rates can weigh on home sales, the silver lining is that the market does not need a return to ultra-low rates to continue healing," he said. "Slower house-price growth, rising incomes, more inventory and a gradually easing lock-in effect can improve affordability and support a broader thaw, even if mortgage rates remain elevated."

Welcome to the live blog!

12:37 p.m. EDT

Welcome to our fifth live blog of 2026 at Mortgage Professional America. Today, we are covering the Federal Reserve’s fifth rate announcement of the year.

Today marks the second rate decision announced with Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. There has been considerable speculation about whether the central bank will continue to hold, or if it will consider a 25-basis-point rate hike to try to curb elevated inflation. Either way, Warsh expects a good “family fight” as the FOMC members try to come to a decision.

CME FedWatch shows a 33.7% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike today. However, it likes the chance of a September hike better, with just a 19.4% chance that the Fed funds rate will remain where it is today after the September meeting.

We’ll break everything down leading up to the 2 p.m. rate decision announcement. Then we’ll have broker and economist reaction afterwards, followed by Warsh’s comments at 2:30 p.m. Refresh often for the latest news!