Redfin data shows pending sales at a record low and the median monthly mortgage payment near its all-time high
For the first time in more than three years, the median US home-sale price fell on an annual basis, and it happened in consecutive weeks.
Redfin data for the four weeks ending October 25, showed the median sale price at $389,601, down 0.1% from a year earlier. That follows a 0.2% decline the week prior, ending an unbroken run of year-over-year price increases that stretched back through 2023.
Affordability is not following prices down. The median monthly mortgage payment climbed to $2,786 at a 7.32% mortgage rate, up 10.7% from a year ago, making it the second-highest reading in Redfin’s records.
According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the weekly average eased from 7.4% the prior week but remains close to a three-year high.
Demand hits a new low
The buyer pullback is broad and deepening. Pending home sales dropped 1.8% week over week to a seasonally adjusted 276,352, the lowest level in records dating back to 2021 and down 15.9% year over year.
Contract activity declined in all 50 of the most populous US metro areas for the third consecutive week. Seattle led all major markets with a 31.6% year-over-year drop in pending sales, followed by Atlanta at 25.9% and San Diego at 25.3%.
Regional divergence remains pronounced. As Mortgage Professional America has documented in its ongoing coverage of shifting regional housing market conditions, Sun Belt markets are absorbing the steepest price corrections, with Austin, Texas, down 4.6% year over year and Kansas City, Missouri, down 4.3%.
San Francisco sits at the opposite end, posting a 15% annual gain, the strongest of any major metro.
New listings fell 0.6% to 352,421, their lowest count since January, as homeowners react to slow homebuying demand.
Even so, active inventory edged up 0.3% to 1,510,619 homes, with months of supply rising to 4.5 — a level considered balanced — giving buyers more negotiating power than they have had in over a decade. Sellers are pulling back, but buyers are pulling back faster.
New data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller and Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showed continued home price growth in August, though affordability pressures remain as inflation and mortgage rates continue to weigh on buyers. https://t.co/tawpgNZrLV
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) October 27, 2026
What it means for brokers
Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage in New York, told MPA in February that the pace of market recovery would hinge almost entirely on where borrowing costs landed.
“I think if rates remain stable, then hopefully we’ll see some improvement because a lot of people put off making a move last year,” Cohn said.
“But hopefully inflation will stabilize and head back down towards the 2% level, the Fed will enact two additional rate cuts this year, we’ll see lower rates and we’ll have a better year.”
That scenario has not played out. Rates have climbed to 7.32%, and demand is now in retreat across every major market.
Bruce Gehrke, senior director of wealth and lending intelligence at JD Power, told MPA that the current environment puts a premium on the broker’s local edge.
“I think brokers need to continue to focus on where their competitive advantage has always been,” Gehrke said.
“That’s more local, that’s more personal, face-to-face with the borrower. I think that’s still an advantage that they have.”
The share of listings with price reductions rose to 21.5%, up from 20.9% the prior week, and just 23.2% of homes sold above list price. The average sale-to-list ratio held at 98.3%.
The supply pipeline offers little near-term relief: as MPA has reported on the sharp pullback in single-family housing starts through 2026, new construction has not kept pace with demand even as buyer interest wanes.
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