Redfin data shows contract activity climbing even as prices stay near record highs
Pending home sales in the United States rose 1.3% week over week during the four weeks ending July 5, reaching their highest level since the first half of May, according to new data from Redfin, the real estate brokerage owned by Rocket Companies.
The seasonally adjusted figures point to a brief but meaningful pickup in buyer activity, one directly tied to a short-lived retreat in borrowing costs.
The catalyst was a dip in the weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.43% for the week ending July 2, its lowest reading in six weeks.
Analysts attributed the move partly to progress in US-Iran negotiations, which temporarily settled financial markets and brought the median monthly housing payment down to $2,598. That affordability window, however, proved fleeting.
The 10-year Treasury yields, a key driver of 30-year fixed mortgage rates, ticked sharply higher on Wednesday morning after President Trump declared the ceasefire “over” amid a fresh wave of military strikes.
That influential yield had climbed by more than five basis points, inching above 4.58%, while oil prices also jumped as hopes of a prolonged truce crumbled.
Mortgage application volume held essentially flat in the week ending June 26, inching up just 0.04% on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.https://t.co/h4K8lX93Kl
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) July 3, 2026
Buyers find footing, but hurdles remain
Metro-level data revealed the kind of divergence that has defined the 2026 housing market. Austin, Texas, and West Palm Beach, Florida, led the nation in pending sales growth, posting year-over-year gains of 17% and 16.6%, respectively.
Houston sat at the opposite end of the spectrum, falling 12.2%, the steepest annual decline among tracked metros.
Pittsburgh recorded the strongest price appreciation at 9.2% annually, while San Jose, California, dropped 6%.
As pending home sales hit a six-month high in May 2026 and home sales climbed as mortgage affordability improved in June, the mid-year pattern has been consistent: demand ticks up when rates ease, then retreats when they rise again.
The question for mortgage professionals heading into the fall is whether any sustained improvement will emerge before the Federal Reserve's next policy move.
| Metro area | YoY change | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Austin, TX | +17.0% | Biggest YoY gain nationally |
| West Palm Beach, FL | +16.6% | |
| Boston, MA | +13.4% | |
| Providence, RI | +12.8% | |
| Sacramento, CA | +12.7% | |
| San Jose, CA | -0.8% | |
| Denver, CO | -0.8% | |
| Virginia Beach, VA | -1.3% | |
| Seattle, WA | -10.0% | |
| Houston, TX | -12.2% | Biggest YoY decline nationally |
Source: Redfin, seasonally adjusted data. Four weeks ending July 5, 2026. Includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros; select metros may be excluded to ensure data accuracy.
Supply side falls short of demand
Even as buyers responded to the momentary cost relief, sellers did not follow. New listings fell 2.5% week over week, dropping to their lowest level since January 2026.
Active inventory stood at approximately 1.49 million homes nationally, up just 0.7% from a year earlier, with months of supply at 3.4. That's well short of the four to five months typically associated with a balanced market.
"The housing market is kicking off the summer by showing a bit of resilience," said Chen Zhao, head of economics research at Redfin.
"While near-record prices and a lack of new listings are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines, there are enough house hunters hitting the pavement to push pending sales up. If that trend continues, we may get more fresh listings from sellers hoping to take advantage of demand and high prices."
The median sale price rose 2.2% year over year to $408,808, roughly $500 shy of the all-time national high, while the median asking price climbed 2.5% annually to $401,029.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, pending sales totaled approximately 337,402, a 6.3% gain from the same period a year ago, based on Redfin's national dataset covering more than 900 US metro areas.
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