Lending executive sees 2026 as a rare opening for buyers and independent brokers
As 2025 drew to a close, United Wholesale Mortgage (UWM) chief executive Mat Ishbia casts 2026 as a year when power in the United States housing market tilted back toward buyers and toward independent mortgage brokers.
He points to a sharp imbalance between supply and demand.
“It’s now a buyer’s market. There’s more sellers out there, I think 37% more sellers than buyers, which is the biggest number since, I think, 2013,” Ishbia said in this month’s 3Points video.
Recent data from Redfin showed an estimated 37.2% more home sellers than buyers in November 2025 – the largest gap in records dating back to 2013 – reinforcing that view.
Buyers’ leverage grows as prices cool, not collapse
Ishbia stressed that the shift in power did not amount to a crash. “Housing values are not going up as fast… they’re going up still 2.6% instead of 2.9%,” he said. “Housing market is strong and stable. It’s an opportunity for buyers to go out and buy houses… So it’s going to be a great year in 2026.”
Those comments lined up with broader research suggesting that a wider gap between sellers and buyers often leads to price negotiations rather than steep declines, even as affordability remained stretched for many households.
Trump’s rate push raised hopes – and questions
A second theme was policy. “President Trump talked about a huge housing plan he has, all the great things he’s going to do to hopefully make a big impact on housing,” Ishbia said, adding that the president is “really focused on dropping interest rates” and on installing a new Federal Reserve chair as Jerome Powell’s term ends.
“We think it’s a very positive thing across the board that the president of the United States is focused on a big housing plan… He’s pushing for interest rates to be lower. And we expect with the new Fed chair that rates will be lower… and more buyers will be able to buy houses and a lot of people will be able to refinance in 2026,” he said.
Some of those expectations remain speculative. Trump has pressed for aggressive rate cuts and pledged to appoint a chair “who believes in lowering interest rates by a lot.” However, economists warned that a new chair would have limited control over long‑term mortgage costs and that structural supply constraints would persist.
Meanwhile, Ishbia believes that the Trump administration's 50-year mortgage plan can be a major step toward getting more people into housing. He previously compared the jump from a 30-year to a 50-year mortgage to a similar one that happened when people moved on from the 15-year to the 30-year mortgage.
“Everyone likes the 15-year,” Ishbia said. “Anyone buy a house with the 15-year? Almost everyone does a 30-year. People don't care about the term. They care about the payment. The payment is what people need. How do you make housing more affordable?”
Ishbia said he’s not sure whether the 50-year mortgage will become a reality, but he believes that if Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac get on board, it could create the market availability needed to make it a success.
Broker channel bets on another leg up
Ishbia reserved his most confident outlook for independent mortgage brokers.
“The mortgage broker market share continues to grow, continues to rise up year after year after year,” he said.
“Over 28%, it looks like it might finish closer to 29% for 2025. And the number 30, 32, 33% is very realistic this year and beyond.”
He linked the trend to a steady migration of loan officers out of retail.
“Loan officers continue to move over from the retail channel to the broker because it’s an opportunity to close loans faster, make it easier, cheaper for consumers,” he said. Education was part of the story too: “Consumers [are] being educated about the best way to get mortgages through an independent mortgage broker.”
For experienced originators and brokers, Ishbia’s three points boiled down to a clear challenge: treat the current buyer‑skewed market, political spotlight on housing, and rising broker share not as guarantees of an “amazing year,” but as a window to compete harder on pricing, execution and advice while the cycle briefly bends in their favor.
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