Multiple studies point to the same pattern
Mortgage brokers face a growing rate-dispersion problem even among the most similar borrowers, according to Intercontinental Exchange's (ICE) August 2026 Mortgage Monitor. Borrowers with nearly identical credit profiles are locking meaningfully different interest rates, averaging a 38-basis-point spread among conforming purchase borrowers in 2026. On a $300,000 loan, that gap costs a borrower roughly $76 a month.
Government-backed loans see wider spreads
That difference translates to approximately $5,790 in additional costs over the first five years of the loan. Among FHA and VA borrowers, the spread widens to 47 and 48 basis points, respectively. The widest variation is concentrated among borrowers with lower credit scores, smaller loan balances, higher loan-to-value ratios, and those using government-backed loan programs.
The pattern echoes earlier findings from Freddie Mac, which has tracked rate dispersion among similar borrowers using its Loan Product Advisor tool. In a published analysis of 2022 data, Freddie Mac found that rate dispersion for similar borrower profiles more than doubled compared with the prior 11-year average. Between 2010 and 2021, average dispersion stayed below 20 basis points, but it climbed to about 50 basis points in October and November 2022.
"The increase in rate dispersion means that consumers with similar borrower profiles are being offered a wide range of mortgage rates," said Genaro Villa, macro and housing economics professional at Freddie Mac, in the 2022 analysis.
A separate, earlier Federal Reserve Board study found the gap runs even wider once upfront points are factored in. The August 2020 study estimated a 54-basis-point gap between the 10th and 90th percentile mortgage rate for borrowers with the same characteristics on identical loans, in the same market, on the same day — equivalent to about $6,500 in upfront costs for the average loan. The study found that time-invariant lender attributes explain little of this dispersion, and that considerable variation persists even within the same loan officer.
Price growth accelerates for a fifth month
The rate findings arrive alongside record wealth accumulation nationally. Mortgage holder equity reached $18 trillion for the first time on record, while annual home price growth reached a 14-month high in July. Annual home price growth rose to 1.5% in July, marking its fifth consecutive month of acceleration and its steepest single-month increase since mid-2023.
"Mortgage holder equity hitting $18 trillion is a remarkable milestone — one that reflects just how much wealth American homeowners have built," said Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at ICE. "The spring market provided a meaningful boost to both prices and equity, and we're seeing those tailwinds work through the data now. At the same time, rates have trended higher since early in the year, which may soften how much additional acceleration we're likely to see in the second half."
The jump reflects lower rates early in 2026 injecting demand into the market, as weak summer 2025 prices roll out of the comparison window. As rates have moved higher, one-month adjusted price gains have softened, suggesting that further acceleration in the second half of the year may be limited.
Mortgage holders had $11.7 trillion in tappable equity in the second quarter, with about 47.5 million borrowers holding an average of $212,000 each. Not all borrowers shared in the gains. Roughly 813,000 mortgage holders remained underwater, up 44% year-over-year, concentrated among FHA and VA borrowers who purchased between 2022 and 2025, largely in Texas and Florida.
The report also flagged unusually deep discounts on distressed sales. Bank-owned real-estate-owned properties sold at a 27.5% discount to comparable sales in June, among the steepest gaps in more than two decades, with the widest discounts appearing in Florida, Texas, California and the Mountain West.
ICE's Mortgage Monitor draws on the company's loan-level residential mortgage database, which the company says covers the majority of the US market.
