Stamp duty scrapped? What Burnham's housing plans mean

Andy Burnham's emergence as the frontrunner to succeed Keir Starmer as prime minister has put housing policy back at the centre of the mortgage conversation – and brokers who wait for certainty before acting risk being caught flat-footed.

Joseph Lane (pictured top), founder and director of Mortgage Lane, told Mortgage Introducer the policy implications of a Burnham government extend well beyond a change of leadership, and clients across all segments of the market should be thinking now about what the direction of travel means for their finances.

What would Burnham's property levy mean for mortgage rates?

The most structurally significant element of Burnham's housing agenda is his backing for replacing both council tax and stamp duty with a proportional property levy. Burnham has aligned himself with proposals from the cross-party Fairer Share campaign group, which calls for an annual charge equivalent to 0.48% of a property's assessed value, equivalent to £1,200 a year on a £250,000 home, according to Fairer Share's own modelling.

Lane said the switch would fundamentally alter how buyers and lenders approach affordability.

"Burnham has advocated replacing both council tax and stamp duty with a proportional property levy equivalent to 0.48 per cent of a property's value. Today, buyers often add stamp duty costs to their overall borrowing requirement. A new annual property levy would instead become a permanent household expense, reducing disposable income and potentially lowering the amount lenders are willing to offer through affordability assessments."

Lane was clear the macro risk runs deeper than household budgets. Fiscal reform on this scale, he said, could move markets in ways that directly affect fixed-rate mortgage pricing. Fixed-rate mortgage pricing is determined largely by swap rates, which in turn track gilt yields. When gilt yields rise, swap rates follow, and fixed mortgage rates typically move with them.

"More importantly, major property tax reform like this represents a significant fiscal policy shift,” he said. “If investors become uncertain about the fiscal implications of such reforms, gilt yields could rise, pushing swap rates higher and increasing the cost of fixed-rate mortgages."

The outcome, however, is not predetermined. Lane noted markets respond to perceived credibility as much as to policy content.

"That doesn't mean mortgage rates would automatically increase under a Burnham government. In fact, if reforms are viewed as economically credible and supportive of housing mobility, markets could ultimately respond positively. However, the mortgage impact of Burnham as PM is likely to be far greater than the impact of Starmer's resignation, because policy changes have a much stronger influence on borrowing costs than leadership changes alone."

What should landlords do while the political dust settles?

Across both segments, Lane's message was consistent. Focus on what can be controlled now, not on what might be enacted over the next Parliament.

For landlords reviewing their buy-to-let positions, Lane said the near-term fundamentals have not changed, even as the political environment has shifted sharply. He pointed to the Bank of England base rate, housing supply, and buyer confidence as the drivers that actually move values, not the identity of the occupant at Downing Street.

"In the short term, values are still driven far more by the Bank of England base rate, the supply of homes and buyer confidence than by who's in Downing Street. The market has weathered every leadership change of the past decade, and this is no different. Landlords should read the direction of travel rather than any single announcement."

Lane noted Burnham's record as Greater Manchester mayor points toward tighter regulation of the private rented sector but also grants to help landlords meet energy efficiency standards. He flagged capital gains tax alignment with income tax as a live possibility, and warned that if disincentives accumulate, the real consequence would be reduced stock and upward rent pressure rather than direct house price falls.

"Anyone reviewing buy-to-let mortgages should stress-test their numbers now and keep their EPC plans on track, because the cost and criteria around buy-to-let mortgages will matter far more to portfolio returns in the near term than any of these proposals."

Is a Burnham government good news for first-time buyers?

On the first-time buyer side of the market, Lane said the direction of policy was broadly positive, but cautioned against waiting for political clarity that could be years away.

Burnham's stated commitment to large-scale housebuilding and his backing for stamp duty reform both represent structural tailwinds for affordability, but Lane said neither translates into action that can shape a 2026 purchase decision.

"For first-time buyer mortgages, the headline is actually fairly encouraging. A serious focus on building is one of the few things that genuinely helps affordability over time, and any move to reform or scrap stamp duty would lower the upfront cost of getting on the ladder. But these are long-term possibilities, not changes you can plan a 2026 purchase around. Right now, what matters is your deposit, the rate you can secure and the support schemes already available. My advice is to get your affordability properly assessed and not to put life on hold waiting for political clarity that may be years away."