Live blog: BoE to reveal latest rate decision

11:40 a.m.: How the BoE's rate stacks up against other global central banks

The Bank of England could become the latest in a string of global central banks to make a move on interest rates in recent weeks – and notably, it will not be doing so alone. The US Federal Reserve voted unanimously on Wednesday to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%, its first increase since 2023. The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.5% on 10 September – its second hike since the US-Iran war began, citing persistent inflationary pressure from energy prices.

With both the Fed and the ECB now having moved ahead of today's BoE decision, the pressure on Andrew Bailey and the MPC to follow suit has only grown.

Here's how the rate picture looks in other global economies:

11:30 a.m.: Executive warns of 'choose your poison' dilemma facing MPC

Nouran Moustafa, executive financial and mortgage adviser at Roxton Wealth, told Mortgage Introducer that the committee faces an uncomfortable decision whichever way it votes today, with political and economic pressures pulling in opposite directions.

"It's either you hold the rate and harm the economy, or raise the rate and harm Westminster," she said. "The bond market is not happy. Unemployment is going up, inflation is going up."

Moustafa said she would personally favour a rise, arguing the economic case for action is clear, but acknowledged that the approaching October Budget adds a difficult political dimension. On the ground, she said remortgage clients are particularly anxious, especially those on tracker products, with some already weighing up whether to break their deal and move to a fixed rate ahead of any further increases.

"I have had some clients reaching out to me and telling me if they raise the rate next time by 0.5% or 0.75%, or if there is any sort of massive increase, they would much rather break the tracker right now and just move to a fixed rate," she said.

Buyers, by contrast, have largely adapted, with many now following swap rate movements rather than the base rate as the more meaningful signal for where mortgage pricing is heading.

11:20 a.m.: Explainer: How do BoE decisions impact mortgage rates?

It’s a question you’ve probably heard before from your clients – but just in case you’re wondering, here’s the rundown:

When the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raises or lowers its base rate, it directly influences the cost of borrowing across the UK economy, including mortgages. Tracker mortgages, which are pegged to the base rate, move almost immediately in response to any decision.

Standard variable rate (SVR) mortgages typically follow within weeks, at lenders' discretion. Fixed-rate mortgages are less directly tied to the base rate; instead, they are priced against swap rates, which reflect financial markets' expectations of where the base rate is heading over the coming years.

This means fixed rates can shift ahead of an MPC decision – or independently of one altogether – if market sentiment changes.

11:10 a.m.: Recap of the Bank of England's latest announcements

The UK's central bank has held interest rates steady throughout 2026 so far, resisting pressure to move in either direction as it weighs the impact of higher oil prices and the ongoing conflict in Iran on the national economy – though today's decision could break that run.

Here's a summary of how the central bank has acted in its latest announcements:

11:00 a.m.: August inflation surge narrows the MPC's options

A worse-than-expected inflation reading this week has thrown today's decision wide open.

UK CPI climbed to 3.1% in August, the ONS confirmed on Wednesday, up from 2.9% in July and well above the Bank's 2% target. The general mood among industry figures was one of alarm tempered by resignation, with most having already anticipated a rise but warning that the trajectory makes further MPC action increasingly hard to avoid.

Rob Clifford of Stonebridge said the reading simply confirmed what lenders had already priced in, warning that a hold today would not ease the medium-term inflation fears driving borrowing costs higher. Emma Hollingworth of LSL Financial Services said the data had materially shifted the odds on the MPC's next move, noting that the ECB raised rates last week and markets expect the Fed to follow suit, piling pressure on the Bank to act sooner rather than later. Mark Harris of SPF Private Clients said the chance of a rise – and potentially more – looks increasingly likely, though he suggested the Bank might hold today and wait until November before moving.

The consensus view: today's hold remains possible, but the August data has made a rate rise look less like a question of if and more a question of when.

10:50 a.m.: Here's what to expect today

Bank of England days are always full of their own unique blend of intrigue and drama – and today's decision is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested in recent memory.

A Mortgage Introducer poll conducted ahead of the decision found that more than half of mortgage professionals expect the MPC to hold the base rate at 3.75%, but the case for a rise has grown dramatically. Of 133 respondents, 57% backed a hold, while 35% predicted a raise, 2% expected a cut, and 7% said the outcome was too close to call.

That marks a seismic shift from July, when just 11% of respondents called a hike and eight in 10 backed a hold. The swing reflects a market that has had to rapidly reassess its expectations following UK inflation accelerating to 3.1% in August – well above the Bank's 2% target – and a week in which major lenders including Halifax, Nationwide, HSBC, and Santander raised mortgage rates twice as swap rates climbed.

The MPC's July vote was 6–3 in favour of a hold, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill all dissenting in favour of a rise to 4%. With inflation now above 3%, that minority view looks considerably less isolated going into today's decision.

For now, a hold remains the most likely outcome, but a rise to 4% is firmly on the table.

10:45 a.m.: We’re live!

Welcome along to today’s live blog on the Bank of England decision with Mortgage Introducer! Stay tuned as we provide all the updates from what’s sure to be one of the most closely watched days in the mortgage industry calendar for 2026.

The BoE will be announcing its next call on rates at 12 p.m. today, and we have you covered with all the latest updates and reaction from the mortgage industry.