How the housing market in your state determines who will win the mid-term elections

by Rachel.Norvell17 Oct 2014

Arkansas housing market favors Democratic incumbent

Two-term Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor of Arkansas is in the fight of his political life against freshman GOP challenger Tom Cotton, however RealtyTrac predicts he stands a pretty good chance of winning. Of the nine counties in Arkansas scored, eight were categorized as better off while one was categorized as toss-up and none were categorized as worse off.

Arkansas’ three largest counties —Pulaski, Benton, and Washington — all had a decrease of about 1 percentage point in unemployment rates compared with two years ago. In Washington County, 17% of homeowners with a mortgage are seriously underwater, while in Benton County 14% are seriously underwaqter and 12% of Pulaski County mortgage holders are seriously underwater.

However, home prices are up in Washington County, rising 22%  between August 2012 and August 2014. The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median priced home is up 5 percentage points from two years ago in Washington County. Arkansas foreclosure starts are down in all three counties compared with two years ago: 90% in Benton County, 78% in Washington County and 70% in Pulaski County.

Click here to view RealtyTrac’s Housing Scorecard.

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