Data puts September hike into question

by Justin da Rosa06 Aug 2015
ADP’s national employment data came in below expected, but that doesn’t mean the Fed has shelved its plan to hike rates in September.

“Nothing has been decided and I haven't made any decisions of what I would support and certainly the committee hasn't," Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell told CNBC. "We're still working with the same framework, we're looking for some further improvement in the labor market and reasonable confidence on inflation going back to two percent in the medium term. I'm going to be very focused on the data from now until the meeting, particularly the labor market data."

ADP’s national employment report came in at 185,000, lower than the 215,000 private-sector payroll expectation.

If the Fed does hold off on hiking its rate, originators will likely continue to enjoy the record-low environment that is drawing clients to the market.

Inflation is currently at 0.1 percent for the 12 months prior to June 2015. The next government inflation update is scheduled for August 19.

"July employment growth was slower than June, but is still in line with what we have seen since the first of the year,” Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP said in a release. “Notably, large businesses with more than 500 employees had their strongest job gains since last December and were almost double the June number.”

Service-producing employment rose by 8,000 jobs in July, a large decrease from 13,000 added in June. Construction jobs also missed June’s mark – coming in at 15,000 added jobs compared to 17,000.

“Job growth is strong, but it has moderated since the beginning of the year,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics said in a release. “Layoffs in the energy industry and weaker job gains in manufacturing are behind the slowdown.

“Nonetheless, even at this slower pace of growth, the labor market is fast approaching full employment.”


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