Association releases 2018 forecast

by MPA31 Oct 2017
Commercial and multifamily originations are expected to increase by the end of 2017 before tempering in 2018.

The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts multifamily and commercial mortgages will increase 5% year-over-year in 2017 to $515 billion.

However, that growth is expected to slow in 2018.

"Commercial and multifamily markets remain strong, even as many growth measures are exhibiting a bit of a downshift," Jamie Woodwell, MBA's vice president of commercial real estate research, said "Property values are up 6 percent through the first 8 months of this year. Despite a decline in property sales transactions, commercial and multifamily mortgage originations were 15 percent higher during the first half of this year than a year earlier. We expect stable property markets and strong capital availability to continue to support mortgage borrowing and lending in 2018."

The MBA expects commercial and multifamily mortgage debt outstanding to continue to grow in 2017, ending the year 6% higher than at the end of 2016.

“MBA forecasts mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages at $235 billion in 2017, with total multifamily lending at $271 billion,” it said in a release. “After strong growth in 2017, multifamily lending is expected to slow slightly in 2018.”