Everyone wants to know how the housing market, which saw stubbornly low inventory and challenges for affordability in 2018, will perform this year.
And while no-one can ever be certain, especially against the backdrop of political and economic uncertainty, there are always trends to inform how things may end up.
Real estate tech firm HouseCanary has identified trends that its analysis of the market has revealed
Where is the greatest change happening?
Looking at data for those markets which saw a price drop of at least 20% after the Great Recession, measured from the peak of between 2005 and 2010 to the next lowest point, the analysis found that:
The five MSAs with the highest growth rate since the recession include:
- Flint, Michigan
- Greeley, Colorado
- Jackson, Michigan
- Muskegon-Norton Shores, Michigan
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, California
The five MSAs with the lowest growth rate since the recession include:
- Bakersfield-Delano, California
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida
- Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Florida
- Naples-Marco Island, Florida
- Yuma, Arizona
Greeley, Muskegon-Norton Shores, and San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara have all exceeded 2008-2010 real estate prices; Greeley and the San Jose markets have grown by 50% since the 2008-2010 peaks.
Luxury market is softening
A HouseCanary analysis found that in 97% of metro statistical areas there is significant softening of the luxury market with price growth at least half that of the non-luxury sector.
While the national growth rate for the luxury market is 1.83% lower than the non-luxury market, in some markets it is 5% lower. These include:
- Las Vegas
- Orlando, Florida
- Stockton, California
However, in 25% of markets, luxury and non-luxury prices are within 1% of each other. These include:
- Albany, New York
- Virginia Beach, Virginia
- Hilton Head, South Carolina
- El Paso, Texas
- Boulder, Colorado
Lower-end home demand is driving up prices
The third trend identified by the analysis is that some areas are seeing prices fueled by demand for entry level homes, where inventory of these homes is tight.
Across the 465 markets analyzed the growth rate for these homes averaged 3% year-over-year.
The MSAs showing among the highest price growth in this home segment include:
- Aberdeen, Washington (21.26%)
- Las Vegas (18.04%)
- Fernley, Nevada (16.02%)
- Okeechobee, Florida (15.81%)
- Pullman, Washington (15.11%)
While those that showed declines in lower-end homes include:
- Vernon, Texas (-12.86%)
- Bastrop, Louisiana (-6.27%)
- Kinston, North Carolina (-5.69%)
- Grants, New Mexico (-5.26%)
- Cornelia, Georgia (-4.39%)
71 markets showed price declines at the low end of the market; 29 of those price declining markets are in the Southeast, and 18 are in the Midwest.
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