Refinancing demand is surging across commercial real estate
Commercial mortgage lenders are locked in their fiercest competition on record, a development that is reshaping the financing environment for US property owners and creating new opportunities for mortgage brokers working in the commercial space.
Global credit competition soared to an all-time high in April 2026, fuelled by a massive wave of refinancing and large loan placements, according to JLL's newly launched Global Credit Intensity Index. The index draws on JLL's proprietary dataset of nearly $9 trillion in investment sales bids and loan quotes, tracking the number of active lenders and competitiveness of loan terms across global commercial real estate (CRE) capital markets.
With a near-record number of distinct lenders active across all capital sources, lenders are competing to place capital and expanding their risk tolerance — a dynamic that has triggered a notable rise in winning loan-to-value (LTV) rates.
The breadth of lender participation is striking. Banks, private credit funds, government agencies, insurance companies, and family offices are all active in the market. Over the past five years, investors in private funds have funnelled capital into credit vehicles, while government agencies have stepped up activity in multifamily real estate and insurance companies have expanded their CRE exposure.
"It's because those groups can earn a bigger spread by investing in real estate versus something else," said Lauro Ferroni, JLL's head of capital markets research for the Americas. "It can be more lucrative for them. That's No. 1. No. 2 is just that they want to diversify their allocations across different economic cycles."
The surge is being driven primarily by refinancing demand rather than acquisition activity. Commercial real estate owners are reluctant to sell properties at lower values as debt matures, making refinancing an increasingly preferred route.
That pressure is significant. An estimated $936 billion in commercial mortgages will mature in 2026, keeping lenders highly active even as underwriting stays disciplined. Separate MBA data shows that commercial and multifamily originations increased 52% on an annual basis in the first quarter of 2026, with bank-held loan maturities driving an 80% jump in depository lending, according to Reggie Booker, associate vice president of commercial research at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Data centers and sector divergence
Not all property types are benefiting equally. Data centers have emerged as the dominant force pulling lender capital, with the AI-driven buildout fuelling real estate activity across the broader economy. Ferroni noted that beyond data centers, performance fundamentals across other sectors are making CRE attractive to both buyers and lenders at current valuations.
Commercial real estate values have repriced significantly since interest rates began rising in early 2022, putting the asset class at what JLL considers an attractive entry point relative to equities near all-time highs.
The industrial and logistics sector has seen continued strengthening over the past three months, with leasing activity picking up and vacancy rates for large warehouses declining notably. Multifamily, however, is a different story — bidding competitiveness in that segment has softened due to recent oversupply that has kept rent growth subdued despite a tight labour market.
Credit outpacing investment sales
The record pace of lending is creating a visible split in the market. Credit markets are running at full speed, while buyer bidding activity, though improving, remains on a slower trajectory — still below 2021 levels according to JLL's Global Bid Intensity Index.
Despite that gap, sentiment is broadly positive. Richard Bloxam, CEO of capital markets at JLL, said the volume of debt capital chasing yield is near all-time highs, with lenders moving aggressively to win business. "When you combine this highly competitive debt environment with a steady rebuilding of investor bidding pools, it's clear that a powerful new liquidity cycle is underway," Bloxam said.
JLL projects that the narrowing bid-ask spread — which has contracted significantly since the market trough in 2023 — should support a more predictable transaction environment in the second half of 2026, potentially unlocking deal flow that has been held back by valuation uncertainty.
