A slowing national decline conceals sharp divergence that will change how brokers talk to clients this fall
The US rental market is dividing by geography. The national median asking rent fell 0.4% year over year to $1,694 across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in September, the 38th consecutive month of decline and the slowest pace of retreat in three years, according to the Realtor.com.
Rents remain 14.5% above pre-pandemic levels, even as Zillow’s picture of renters gaining breathing room in 2026 pointed toward gradual improvement — the gap between a falling headline and genuine affordability remains wide.
“Renters are getting a break, but rents are still significantly more expensive than before the pandemic,” said Jiayi Xu, senior economist at Realtor.com in New York.
“While asking rents are below their 2022 peak and concessions are still easy to find, for many households, relief is not the same as affordability. As the market enters its typical fall slowdown, we forecast that monthly rents will soften, but the additional relief might be more limited.”
Nearly 43.9% of listings across the 50 largest metros offered concessions in September, up 1.3 percentage points year over year — echoing a spring market in which seller concessions hit a record high in May, concentrated in supply-heavy markets.
AI-driven demand reshapes the Bay Area
The Bay Area is a stark outlier. Median asking rent in San Jose surged 6.0% year over year to a record $3,565, while San Francisco climbed 4.8% to $3,057, just $48 below its summer 2022 pandemic peak.
The share of San Jose listings offering concessions collapsed from 51.9% to 24.3% in a single year; San Francisco dropped from 47.6% to 28.1%.
“Rising rents and vanishing concessions are a one-two punch for Bay Area renters,” said Xu.
“The share of San Jose listings offering concessions has fallen by more than half in a year, from 51.9% to 24.3%, while rents have climbed to record levels. The AI boom is fueling demand, and landlords are responding by tightening terms.”
Affordable alternatives and a Sun Belt correction
Out-of-market migration is reversing declines across lower-cost cities. In the third quarter of 2026, 45.4% of St. Louis rental demand originated from Chicago, where the median asking rent hit a new high of $1,909 in September, up 2.3% year over year.
St. Louis flipped from a 4.4% annual decline to a 2.0% gain; Minneapolis, drawing 27.3% of its out-of-market traffic from Chicago, moved from a 3.4% decline to a 1.7% gain.
In the Sun Belt, supply-driven declines are narrowing. Austin’s annual drop eased from 7.8% in September 2025 to 2.3% in September 2026; Phoenix from 5.8% to 1.9%; Oklahoma City from 6.5% to 1.4%.
For brokers, the September data reinforce a geographic imperative. With high mortgage rates continuing to weigh on the US housing market through 2026, local rent dynamics — surging in AI corridors, stabilizing in affordable alternatives — will shape renter-to-buyer conversion well into year-end.
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