A weekly drop has pushed contract signings to their weakest level since 2023
Pending home sales in the United States fell to their lowest level in nearly three years during the four weeks ending September 13, according to new data from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket.
Seasonally adjusted pending sales totaled 299,126, a 3.5% week-over-week drop and a 5.4% decline from a year earlier.
The reading is the weakest since late 2023 and the latest sign that an elevated rate environment continues to squeeze purchase activity.
Buyers get more room to move
For brokers advising clients sitting on the sidelines, the inventory picture tells a different story.
New listings fell just 0.5% from the prior week but remained 1.5% above year-ago levels, while active inventory nationwide reached approximately 1.5 million homes.
Months of supply edged up to 4.1 from 3.9, moving closer to the four-to-five month range economists consider balanced.
More homes and fewer buyers means less urgency, less competition, and more room to negotiate.
Meme Loggins, a Redfin Premier agent in Portland, Oregon, was direct on what buyers should be doing now.
"House hunters who can afford it should be taking advantage of today's slow market," she said.
"If and when mortgage rates trickle down below 6%, I'm willing to bet inventory will be depleted in no time — then it's boom! Back to bidding wars."
Bill Dallas, Chairman of Dallas Capital, says too many mortgage professionals are treating today's market challenges as temporary, when the real shift may be structural.https://t.co/PIKUWA90Ss
— Mortgage Professional America Magazine (@MPAMagazineUS) September 16, 2026
Sellers adjusting, but prices holding firm
The daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.76% for the week ending September 10, up from 6.35% one year ago, according to Freddie Mac. At that rate, the typical monthly mortgage payment came to approximately $2,633, a 3.4% year-over-year increase.
Despite softening demand, prices are not falling. The median US home sale price was $397,633 for the period, up 2% from a year earlier.
Price reductions are growing more common — 20.8% of listings carried cuts, up from 19.7% — but the median days on market held at 46, unchanged year over year.
The average sale-to-list price ratio ticked up to 98.6%, and 25.1% of homes still sold above asking price.
Conditions varied sharply across the country. Pending sales in Seattle fell 20.3% year over year, the steepest decline among the 50 most populous US metros tracked by Redfin. Meanwhile, Fort Lauderdale, Florida, recorded a 6.6% gain.
Mortgage purchase applications fell 1% week over week and were down 19% year over year for the period ending September 11, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported.
| Metric | Value | Year-over-year | Week-over-week | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending sales | 299,126 | ▼ 5.4% | ▼ 3.5% | Lowest level in nearly 3 years |
| New listings | 363,298 | ▲ 1.5% | ▼ 0.5% | |
| Active listings | 1,497,731 | ▲ 1.5% | ▼ 0.6% | |
| Months of supply | 4.1 | Up from 3.9 | 4–5 months = balanced market | |
| Median sale price | $397,633 | ▲ 2.0% | — | |
| Median asking price | $395,841 | ▲ 0.1% | — | |
| Median monthly mortgage payment | $2,633 | ▲ 3.4% | — | At a 6.76% mortgage rate |
| Share off market within 2 weeks | 29.5% | Down from 29.7% | ||
| Median days on market | 46 | Unchanged | ||
| Share of listings with price drops | 20.8% | Up from 19.7% | ||
| Share sold above list price | 25.1% | Up from 24.5% | ||
| Average sale-to-list price ratio | 98.6% | Up from 98.4% | ||
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