Lawrence Yun projects a rise in existing-home sales as inventory expands and overlooked buyer segments gain broker attention
The United States housing market is on track for a modest recovery in the second half of 2026, with inventory growth the key variable. That's a forecast delivered by National Association of Realtors (NAR) Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun at the 2026 REALTORS Legislative Meetings in Washington, D.C.
NAR's current forecast calls for existing-home sales to rise 4% this year, with the median home price also climbing 4%. Mortgage rates are projected to average 6.5% for 2026.
On the broader economy, Yun said the US will avoid a recession, citing strong business investment in artificial intelligence and data centers, with the unemployment rate expected to stay below 5% and approximately 400,000 job gains forecast for the year.
For homeowners, the equity picture remains a persuasive argument for staying in the market. NAR projects the typical homeowner will gain approximately $16,000 in housing wealth in 2026, a figure with direct utility for brokers working with hesitant clients.
"Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels," Yun said.
The long view on home prices
Yun offered a striking long-range projection: the national median home price, currently $430,000, could reach $1 million within approximately 25 years.
For perspective, he pointed to 1990, when the national median stood at just $90,000 and San Francisco, considered expensive at the time, carried a median of only $250,000.
That trajectory is already reasserting itself. Existing-home sales rose 3.2% in May to their highest level since December, and inventory has been building steadily across major US metro areas through the spring season, with new listings outpacing purchases in a growing number of markets.
Overlooked buyers and sellers
Dr. Jessica Lautz, NAR's deputy chief economist and vice president of research, also presented at the forum, directing broker attention toward buyer segments they may be bypassing. She described a market defined by sharp local inconsistency:
"I've been traveling around the nation this year, and I am hearing a lot from you that it's a really wonky market," Lautz told the audience. "You'll list a home on the market, and sometimes it'll sit for months. And sometimes it's going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other."
She highlighted a demographic that often goes unrecognized in client targeting. Seventeen percent of younger baby boomers who sold in 2026 had never sold a property before. This aligns with analysis from industry forecasters pointing to a gradual market reset that rewards brokers willing to identify and educate overlooked segments.
"We talk incessantly about first-time homebuyers. What about first-time sellers?" Lautz said.
On the demand side, Lautz flagged misinformation as a persistent entry barrier. Many potential buyers still believe they need a 20% down payment, while NAR data shows the typical first-time buyer put down just 10% last year.
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